Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada; Health Research Board Clinical Research Facility, Department of Medicine, NUI Galway, Galway, Ireland.
Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Lancet. 2016 Aug 20;388(10046):761-75. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30506-2. Epub 2016 Jul 16.
BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to quantify the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for stroke in different regions of the world, and in key populations and primary pathological subtypes of stroke. METHODS: We completed a standardised international case-control study in 32 countries in Asia, America, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptom onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls were hospital-based or community-based individuals with no history of stroke, and were matched with cases, recruited in a 1:1 ratio, for age and sex. All participants completed a clinical assessment and were requested to provide blood and urine samples. Odds ratios (OR) and their population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated, with 99% confidence intervals. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11, 2007, and Aug 8, 2015, 26 919 participants were recruited from 32 countries (13 447 cases [10 388 with ischaemic stroke and 3059 intracerebral haemorrhage] and 13 472 controls). Previous history of hypertension or blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or higher (OR 2·98, 99% CI 2·72-3·28; PAR 47·9%, 99% CI 45·1-50·6), regular physical activity (0·60, 0·52-0·70; 35·8%, 27·7-44·7), apolipoprotein (Apo)B/ApoA1 ratio (1·84, 1·65-2·06 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26·8%, 22·2-31·9 for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), diet (0·60, 0·53-0·67 for highest vs lowest tertile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index [mAHEI]; 23·2%, 18·2-28·9 for lowest two tertiles vs highest tertile of mAHEI), waist-to-hip ratio (1·44, 1·27-1·64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18·6%, 13·3-25·3 for top two tertiles vs lowest), psychosocial factors (2·20, 1·78-2·72; 17·4%, 13·1-22·6), current smoking (1·67, 1·49-1·87; 12·4%, 10·2-14·9), cardiac causes (3·17, 2·68-3·75; 9·1%, 8·0-10·2), alcohol consumption (2·09, 1·64-2·67 for high or heavy episodic intake vs never or former drinker; 5·8%, 3·4-9·7 for current alcohol drinker vs never or former drinker), and diabetes mellitus (1·16, 1·05-1·30; 3·9%, 1·9-7·6) were associated with all stroke. Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 90·7% of the PAR for all stroke worldwide (91·5% for ischaemic stroke, 87·1% for intracerebral haemorrhage), and were consistent across regions (ranging from 82·7% in Africa to 97·4% in southeast Asia), sex (90·6% in men and in women), and age groups (92·2% in patients aged ≤55 years, 90·0% in patients aged >55 years). We observed regional variations in the importance of individual risk factors, which were related to variations in the magnitude of ORs (rather than direction, which we observed for diet) and differences in prevalence of risk factors among regions. Hypertension was more associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke, whereas current smoking, diabetes, apolipoproteins, and cardiac causes were more associated with ischaemic stroke (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Ten potentially modifiable risk factors are collectively associated with about 90% of the PAR of stroke in each major region of the world, among ethnic groups, in men and women, and in all ages. However, we found important regional variations in the relative importance of most individual risk factors for stroke, which could contribute to worldwide variations in frequency and case-mix of stroke. Our findings support developing both global and region-specific programmes to prevent stroke. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Health Research Board Ireland, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland (Sweden), AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MSD, Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland, and The Stroke Association, with support from The UK Stroke Research Network.
背景:卒中是导致死亡和残疾的主要原因,尤其是在低收入和中等收入国家。我们旨在确定全球不同地区和关键人群及主要卒中病理亚型中,潜在可改变的危险因素对卒中的重要性。
方法:我们在亚洲、美洲、欧洲、澳大利亚、中东和非洲的 32 个国家完成了一项标准化的国际病例对照研究。病例为急性首发卒中(症状发作后 5 天内,且入院后 72 h 内)患者。对照组为无卒中病史的医院或社区个体,与病例以 1:1 的比例匹配年龄和性别。所有参与者均完成临床评估,并要求提供血液和尿液样本。计算比值比(OR)及其人群归因风险(PAR),置信区间为 99%。
发现:2007 年 1 月 11 日至 2015 年 8 月 8 日,32 个国家(13447 例病例[10388 例缺血性卒中和 3059 例颅内出血]和 13472 例对照)共招募了 26919 名参与者。既往高血压病史或血压≥140/90 mmHg(OR 2.98,99%CI 2.72-3.28;PAR 47.9%,99%CI 45.1-50.6)、规律体力活动(0.60,0.52-0.70;PAR 35.8%,27.7-44.7)、载脂蛋白(Apo)B/ApoA1 比值(最高与最低三分位数相比,1.84,1.65-2.06;前两个三分位数与最低三分位数相比,26.8%,22.2-28.9)、饮食(改良替代健康饮食指数[mAHEI]最高与最低三分位数相比,0.60,0.53-0.67;最低两个三分位数与最高三分位数相比,23.2%,18.2-28.9)、腰围与臀围比值(最高与最低三分位数相比,1.44,1.27-1.64;前两个三分位数与最低三分位数相比,18.6%,13.3-25.3)、心理社会因素(2.20,1.78-2.72;PAR 17.4%,13.1-22.6)、当前吸烟(1.67,1.49-1.87;PAR 12.4%,10.2-14.9)、心脏病因(3.17,2.68-3.75;PAR 9.1%,8.0-10.2)、酒精摄入(高或重度间歇性摄入与从不或以前饮酒者相比,2.09,1.64-2.67;PAR 5.8%,3.4-9.7)、以及糖尿病(1.16,1.05-1.30;PAR 3.9%,1.9-7.6)与所有卒中相关。这些危险因素共同导致了全世界所有卒中的 PAR 的 90.7%(缺血性卒中的 PAR 为 91.5%,颅内出血的 PAR 为 87.1%),且在全球不同地区(非洲的 82.7%至东南亚的 97.4%)、性别(男性和女性的 PAR 为 90.6%)和年龄组(≤55 岁的患者为 92.2%,>55 岁的患者为 90.0%)中保持一致。我们观察到,个别危险因素的重要性存在区域差异,这与 OR 幅度的差异有关(而不是我们观察到的饮食方向的差异),以及危险因素在各地区之间的差异。高血压与颅内出血的相关性高于与缺血性卒中的相关性,而当前吸烟、糖尿病、载脂蛋白和心脏病因与缺血性卒中的相关性更高(p<0.0001)。
解释:十种潜在可改变的危险因素与世界上每个主要地区、种族群体、男女和所有年龄段的卒中 PAR 约 90%相关。然而,我们发现,大多数卒中风险因素的相对重要性在不同地区之间存在重要差异,这可能导致全球范围内卒中的发生率和病例组合存在差异。我们的研究结果支持制定全球和特定地区的计划,以预防卒中。
经费:加拿大卫生研究院、加拿大心脏和卒中基金会、加拿大卒中网络、爱尔兰卫生研究委员会、瑞典研究理事会、瑞典心脏和肺基金会、西瑞典区域行政委员会健康与医疗保健委员会、西瑞典区(瑞典)、阿斯利康、百时美施贵宝(加拿大)、辉瑞(加拿大)、默沙东、英国卒中研究网络。
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