Liu Junguo, Ma Kun, Ciais Philippe, Polasky Stephen
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Qinghua East Road 35, Haidian District, 100083, Beijing, China.
Sci Rep. 2016 Jul 22;6:30104. doi: 10.1038/srep30104.
Reactive nitrogen (N) is created in order to sustain food production, but only a small fraction of this N ends up being consumed as food, the rest being lost to the environment. We calculated that the total N input (TN) of global food production was 171 Tg N yr(-1) in 2000. The production of animal products accounted for over 50% of the TN, against 17% for global calories production. Under current TN per unit of food production and assuming no change in agricultural practices and waste-to-food ratios, we estimate that an additional TN of 100 Tg N yr(-1) will be needed by 2030 for a baseline scenario that would meet hunger alleviation targets for over 9 billion people. Increased animal production will have the largest impact on increasing TN, which calls for new food production systems with better N-recycling, such as cooperation between crop and livestock producing farms. Increased N-use efficiency, healthier diet and decreased food waste could mitigate this increase and even reduce TN in 2030 by 8% relative to the 2000 level. Achieving a worldwide reduction of TN is a major challenge that requires sustained actions to improve nitrogen management practices and reduce nitrogen losses into the environment.
为维持粮食生产而产生了活性氮,但这些氮中只有一小部分最终作为食物被消耗,其余的则流失到环境中。我们计算得出,2000年全球粮食生产的总氮输入(TN)为171太克氮/年。动物产品的生产占总氮输入的50%以上,而全球热量生产仅占17%。在当前单位粮食生产的总氮输入水平下,假设农业实践和废物转化为食物的比例不变,我们估计到2030年,为实现满足90多亿人口饥饿缓解目标的基线情景,每年将需要额外增加100太克氮的总氮输入。动物生产的增加对总氮输入增加的影响最大,这就需要建立具有更好氮循环利用的新粮食生产系统,例如作物和畜牧养殖场之间的合作。提高氮利用效率、采用更健康的饮食方式以及减少食物浪费可以缓解这种增加,甚至到2030年使总氮输入相对于2000年的水平降低8%。在全球范围内减少总氮输入是一项重大挑战,需要持续采取行动来改善氮管理实践并减少氮向环境中的流失。