Yang Bruce Zi, Loo Becky P Y
Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Accid Anal Prev. 2016 Oct;95(Pt A):236-49. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.07.002. Epub 2016 Jul 25.
Road traffic collisions represent one of the major public health problems among the leading causes of deaths globally. This paper examines several approaches in detecting hazardous road locations, and discusses the spatial distribution of these locations as well as their relationships with different land uses in Hong Kong. Two most commonly used methodologies in detecting hazardous road locations are used: the hot spot and hot zone methodologies. Both methodologies are performed using raw collision count, excess collision count and Empirical Bayes (EB) estimations. The EB estimation uses land use characteristics near the road network in defining the reference groups. Finally all the approaches are compared by a test to assess their stability. The results show that for different hazardous road location detection methodologies, the best fit estimation methods on sites are different. The results confirm some land use impacts in previous studies, and suggest some further patterns on road safety. The findings are useful in understanding the complex interrelationships between land use and road safety, and in facilitating planners and policy makers to build safer cities.
道路交通事故是全球主要死因中主要的公共卫生问题之一。本文研究了检测危险道路位置的几种方法，并讨论了这些位置在香港的空间分布及其与不同土地用途的关系。采用了两种最常用的检测危险道路位置的方法：热点法和热区法。两种方法均使用原始碰撞计数、超额碰撞计数和经验贝叶斯（EB）估计值进行。EB估计在定义参考组时使用道路网络附近的土地利用特征。最后，通过一项测试对所有方法进行比较，以评估其稳定性。结果表明，对于不同的危险道路位置检测方法，现场的最佳拟合估计方法各不相同。结果证实了先前研究中的一些土地利用影响，并揭示了一些关于道路安全的进一步模式。这些发现有助于理解土地利用与道路安全之间的复杂相互关系，并有助于规划者和政策制定者建设更安全的城市。
