Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology, Toyohashi 441-8580, Japan.
Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Kagawa College, Kagawa 761-8058, Japan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 29;19(21):14123. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192114123.
The reduction in locational traffic accident risks through appropriate traffic safety management is important to support, maintain, and improve children's safe and independent mobility. This study proposes and verifies a method to evaluate the risk of elementary school students-vehicle accidents (ESSVAs) at individual intersections on residential roads in Toyohashi city, Japan, considering the difference in travel purposes (i.e., school commuting purpose; SCP or non-school commuting purpose: NSCP), based on a statistical regression model and Empirical Bayes (EB) estimation. The results showed that the ESSVA risk of children's travel in SCP is lower than that in NSCP, and not only ESSVAs in SCP but also most ESSVAs in NSCP occurred on or near the designated school routes. Therefore, it would make sense to implement traffic safety management and measures focusing on school routes. It was also found that the locational ESSVA risk structure is different depending on whether the purpose of the children's travels is SCP or NSCP in the statistical model. Finally, it was suggested that evaluation of locational ESSVA risks based on the EB estimation is useful for efficiently extracting locations where traffic safety measures should be implemented compared to that only based on the number of accidents in the past.
通过适当的交通安全管理来降低位置交通事故风险对于支持、维护和提高儿童安全和独立出行能力非常重要。本研究提出并验证了一种方法，可基于统计回归模型和经验贝叶斯（EB）估计，评估日本丰桥市居住道路上各个交叉口的小学生与机动车事故（ESSVA）风险，同时考虑出行目的的差异（即上下学目的；SCP 或非上下学目的：NSCP）。结果表明，SCP 中儿童出行的 ESSVA 风险低于 NSCP，而且不仅 SCP 中的 ESSVA，而且大多数 NSCP 中的 ESSVA 都发生在指定的学校路线上或附近。因此，有必要针对学校路线实施交通安全管理和措施。还发现，在统计模型中，儿童出行目的是 SCP 还是 NSCP 会影响位置 ESSVA 风险结构。最后，建议基于 EB 估计评估位置 ESSVA 风险，与仅基于过去事故数量相比，可以更有效地提取需要实施交通安全措施的位置。
