A statistical assessment of pesticide pollution in surface waters using environmental monitoring data: Chlorpyrifos in Central Valley, California.

Pesticides are routinely monitored in surface waters and resultant data are analyzed to assess whether their uses will damage aquatic eco-systems. However, the utility of the monitoring data is limited because of the insufficiency in the temporal and spatial sampling coverage and the inability to detect and quantify trace concentrations. This study developed a novel assessment procedure that addresses those limitations by combining 1) statistical methods capable of extracting information from concentrations below changing detection limits, 2) statistical resampling techniques that account for uncertainties rooted in the non-detects and insufficient/irregular sampling coverage, and 3) multiple lines of evidence that improve confidence in the final conclusion. This procedure was demonstrated by an assessment on chlorpyrifos monitoring data in surface waters of California's Central Valley (2005-2013). We detected a significant downward trend in the concentrations, which cannot be observed by commonly-used statistical approaches. We assessed that the aquatic risk was low using a probabilistic method that works with non-detects and has the ability to differentiate indicator groups with varying sensitivity. In addition, we showed that the frequency of exceedance over ambient aquatic life water quality criteria was affected by pesticide use, precipitation and irrigation demand in certain periods anteceding the water sampling events.