Van Buskirk Joe, Naicker Sundresan, Roxburgh Amanda, Bruno Raimondo, Burns Lucinda
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre (NDARC), University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia.
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre (NDARC), University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia.
Int J Drug Policy. 2016 Sep;35:16-23. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2016.07.004. Epub 2016 Jul 20.
To date monitoring of cryptomarkets operating on the dark net has largely focused on market size and substance availability. Less is known of country specific differences in these indicators and how they may corroborate population prevalence estimates for substance use in different countries.
All substance listings from the cryptomarket Agora were recorded over seven time points throughout February and March 2015. Agora was chosen due to its size as the second largest cryptomarket operating and the level of detail of information provided in individual substance listings. Data were collated and the number of unique sellers selling each substance by country of origin was analysed.
An average of 14,456.7 substance listings were identified across sampled days from 868.7 unique sellers. The top five countries by number of listings were the USA, United Kingdom, Australia, China and the Netherlands, collectively accounting for 61.8% of all identified listings and 68% of all unique sellers. Australia was over represented in terms of sellers per capita, while China was over represented in new psychoactive substance (NPS) listings. When examined by number of listings per seller, the Netherlands and China stood out as particularly large, likely due to these countries' role in the local production of various illicit and new psychoactive substances.
Numbers of sellers by country of origin appear to be influenced by several factors. Australia's overrepresentation in sellers per capita may indicate its relative geographical isolation and the potential for profit margins from selling online, while China's overrepresentation in NPS listings may reflect domestic production of these substances. Continued monitoring will provide enhanced understanding of the increasingly complex and globalised nature of illicit drug markets.
迄今为止，对暗网上运行的加密市场的监测主要集中在市场规模和毒品供应方面。对于这些指标在不同国家的具体差异以及它们如何印证不同国家药物使用的人群流行率估计，我们了解得较少。
记录了2015年2月和3月期间七个时间点上加密市场“阿格拉”（Agora）上的所有毒品 listings。选择“阿格拉”是因为它是运营中的第二大加密市场，且单个毒品 listings 中提供的信息详细程度较高。对数据进行了整理，并分析了按原产国划分的销售每种毒品的独特卖家数量。
在抽样日中，平均从868.7个独特卖家那里识别出14456.7条毒品 listings。按 listings 数量排名前五的国家是美国、英国、澳大利亚、中国和荷兰，它们总共占所有已识别 listings 的61.8%，以及所有独特卖家的68%。澳大利亚在人均卖家方面占比过高，而中国在新型精神活性物质（NPS） listings 方面占比过高。按每个卖家的 listings 数量进行考察时，荷兰和中国显得格外突出，这可能是由于这些国家在各种非法和新型精神活性物质的本地生产中所起的作用。
原产国的卖家数量似乎受到多种因素的影响。澳大利亚在人均卖家方面占比过高，可能表明其相对的地理隔离以及在线销售的潜在利润率，而中国在NPS listings方面占比过高，可能反映了这些物质的国内生产情况。持续监测将有助于加深对非法毒品市场日益复杂和全球化性质的理解。
