Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Sci Adv. 2016 Aug 5;2(8):e1600421. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1600421. eCollection 2016 Aug.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report's summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain.
政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)成员政府通过协商一致批准每份政策制定者摘要(SPM),在全体会议上与科学作者讨论并就每句话达成一致。政府批准程序是 IPCC 评估的一个定义特征,它建立了科学家和政府对当前知识的共同所有权。由此产生的 SPM 修订在轶事、采访和观点中得到了广泛讨论,但尚未进行全面分析。我们对 IPCC SPM 修订进行了深入评估,为理解其性质建立了证据基础。与政府审查和批准相关的修订通常会扩展 SPM,最近的评估报告中 SPM 文本增长了 17%至 53%。一些具有高度政治敏感性和未能达成共识的案例是显著的例外,导致 SPM 收缩。与最近的说法相反,我们发现 IPCC SPM 在多个阅读舒适度指标上与其他专业编辑的评估摘要一样易读。在阅读舒适度指标中,一些 SPM 通过政府审查和批准变得更易读,而另一些则不然。在一个通过整个修订过程审查的 SPM 中,大多数与政府审查和批准相关的修订发生在政府批准全体会议开始之前。这些作者修订强调了清晰度、科学严谨性和解释性。相比之下,随后的全体会议修订特别强调了政策相关性、例子的全面性和专家判断的细微差别。总的来说,通过修订和批准的多阶段熔炉,IPCC 过程增加了价值,因为个人一起在复杂的科学政策领域中航行。