More deaths from pancreatic cancer than breast cancer in the EU by 2017.

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cancer currently ranks below female breast cancer in terms of the number of deaths in both males and females in the EU. While breast cancer mortality rates have been declining in many higher income EU countries during recent decades, rates of pancreatic cancer in contrast are either stable or moderately increasing; a comparative analysis of the short-term future rates of both is warranted.

METHODS

We extracted the annual number of deaths from cancers of the pancreas and breast by gender together with population at risk in each of 28 countries of the EU for the period 2001-2010. We fitted cancer- and gender-specific time-linear regression models and predicted deaths from pancreatic and breast cancer mortality for the years 2011-2025.

RESULTS

We estimated that by the year 2017 more deaths from pancreatic cancer will occur (91 500 annual deaths) than breast cancer (91 000) in the EU. By 2025, deaths from cancer of the pancreas are predicted to be 25% higher (111 500 and 90 000, respectively). Pancreatic cancer may become the third leading cause of death from cancer in the EU after lung and colorectal cancers.

CONCLUSION

Although strategies may emerge in the near future that will enhance the prospects of improving the very poor five-year survival from pancreatic cancer, coordinated efforts are necessary to reduce the foreseeable high mortality burden of disease within the EU.