欧洲 2021 年癌症死亡率预测，重点关注胰腺癌和女性肺癌。

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer.

机构信息

Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.

出版信息

Ann Oncol. 2021 Apr;32(4):478-487. doi: 10.1016/j.annonc.2021.01.006. Epub 2021 Feb 21.

DOI:10.1016/j.annonc.2021.01.006

PMID:33626377

Abstract

BACKGROUND

We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021.

RESULTS

We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988.

CONCLUSION

Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

摘要

背景

我们预测了 2021 年欧盟及其五个人口最多的国家以及英国的癌症死亡率统计数据。我们还关注了胰腺癌和女性肺癌。

材料和方法

我们从世界卫生组织和欧盟统计局数据库中获得了 1970 年至 2015 年的癌症死亡证明和人口数据。我们使用 Joinpoint 回归模型预测了 2021 年所有癌症和 10 个主要癌症部位的死亡人数和年龄标准化（世界人口）率。我们计算了 1989 年至 2021 年期间避免的死亡人数。

结果

我们预测 2021 年欧盟将有 126.7 万人死于癌症，对应的年龄标准化率为男性 130.4/100000（自 2015 年以来下降了 6.6%）和女性 81.0/100000（下降了 4.5%）。我们估计男性肺癌发病率将进一步下降，但女性仍呈上升趋势，上升 6.5%，到 2021 年达到 14.5/100000。欧盟乳腺癌预测率为 13.3/100000（下降了 7.8%）。预测男女胃癌和白血病以及男性膀胱癌的发病率将下降超过 10%；其他癌症部位的趋势也较为有利，除了胰腺癌，男女发病率均呈稳定模式，男性为 8.1/100000，女性为 5.6/100000。25-49 岁和 50-64 岁的欧盟男性胰腺癌发病率分别下降了 10%和 1.8%，而 65 岁以上的男性发病率则上升了 1.3%。年轻女性的发病率仅下降了 3.4%。1989 年至 2021 年期间，欧盟 27 国避免了约 500 万人死于癌症，而 1988 年的峰值发病率为 500 万人。