Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS-Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan; Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS-Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan.
Ann Oncol. 2015 Apr;26(4):779-786. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdv001. Epub 2015 Jan 26.
Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail.
Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.
A total of 1,359,100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766,200 men and 592,900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100,000 men and 83.9/100,000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100,000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates--though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015.
Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325,000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.
2015 年的癌症死亡率统计数据是根据欧盟及其六个人口较多的国家最近获得的最新数据进行预测的。前列腺癌进行了详细分析。
从世界卫生组织数据库和欧盟统计局获得了来自胃、结直肠、胰腺、肺、乳房、子宫、前列腺、白血病和所有癌症的人口和死亡证明数据。数字来自欧盟、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙和英国。通过线性回归获得了按年龄组预测的 2015 年死亡人数，回归模型采用分段回归模型确定了最近一段时间内估计的死亡人数。
2015 年欧盟预计将有 135.91 万人死于癌症（76.62 万男性和 59.29 万女性），标准化死亡率分别为 138.4/10 万男性和 83.9/10 万女性，与 2009 年相比分别下降 7.5%和 6%。在男性中，三种主要癌症（肺癌、结直肠癌和前列腺癌）的预测发病率低于 2009 年，分别下降 9%、5%和 12%。前列腺癌在 35-64 岁、65-74 岁和 75 岁及以上年龄组的预测下降率分别为 14%、17%和 9%。在女性中，乳腺癌和结直肠癌的趋势有利（-10%和-8%），但预测的肺癌发病率上升 9%至 14.24/10 万，成为发病率最高的癌症，有可能超过乳腺癌发病率-尽管乳腺癌（90800 例）的死亡总数仍高于肺癌（87500 例）。胰腺癌在男性和女性中都呈负面趋势，2009 年至 2015 年间男性上升 4%，女性上升 5%。
2015 年的癌症死亡率预测证实了欧盟整体癌症死亡率的有利趋势，自 1988 年达到峰值以来，男性下降了 26%，女性下降了 21%，与峰值相比，2015 年避免了超过 32.5 万人死亡。
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