Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon 4 Road, Salaya, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand; The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon 4 Road, Salaya, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand.
ThEP Center, CHE, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2016 Sep-Oct;14(5):481-488. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2016.06.011. Epub 2016 Aug 21.
The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest and longest Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the history, and the virus has escaped across countries and continents via air travel in this outbreak.
The interpolated data from WHO Ebola situation reports were used to estimate number of weekly infectious individuals and daily effective reproduction numbers (R) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. A stochastic dynamic model was performed to estimate the risk of EVD importation into the top 20 final destination countries of air travelers departing from within the three epidemic countries, and the effectiveness of air travel restriction was subsequently evaluated.
The daily R was estimated at 0.72-1.32 in Guinea, 0.62-1.38 in Liberia and 0.81-1.38 in Sierra Leone. The peak of EVD importation probability was observed in early November 2014 and the restriction of air travel may mitigate the risk up to 67.7% (95% CI 66.6-68.7).
Our results suggest that restriction of air travels is effective in reducing the risk of EVD importation but controlling of the virus at the original affected countries is vitally more important for preventing inter-terrestrial dissemination of EVD.
2014-2015 年西非埃博拉疫情是历史上规模最大、持续时间最长的埃博拉病毒病（EVD）疫情，此次疫情中，病毒通过航空旅行在国家和大洲之间传播。
使用来自世卫组织埃博拉疫情报告的插值数据，估算几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂每周感染人数和每日有效繁殖数（R）。采用随机动态模型估计来自这三个流行国家的航空旅客前往的前 20 个最终目的地国家的埃博拉病毒输入风险，随后评估航空旅行限制的效果。
几内亚的日 R 值估计为 0.72-1.32，利比里亚为 0.62-1.38，塞拉利昂为 0.81-1.38。埃博拉病毒输入概率的峰值出现在 2014 年 11 月初，航空旅行限制可能将风险降低多达 67.7%（95%CI 66.6-68.7）。
我们的结果表明，限制航空旅行可有效降低埃博拉病毒输入风险，但控制原始受影响国家的病毒对于防止埃博拉病毒在陆地传播至关重要。
