Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive 0202, La Jolla, CA 92093-0202, USA.
Science. 2016 Aug 26;353(6302):922-5. doi: 10.1126/science.aag0863.
In ecological analysis, complexity has been regarded as an obstacle to overcome. Here we present a straightforward approach for addressing complexity in dynamic interconnected systems. We show that complexity, in the form of multiple interacting components, can actually be an asset for studying natural systems from temporal data. The central idea is that multidimensional time series enable system dynamics to be reconstructed from multiple viewpoints, and these viewpoints can be combined into a single model. We show how our approach, multiview embedding (MVE), can improve forecasts for simulated ecosystems and a mesocosm experiment. By leveraging complexity, MVE is particularly effective for overcoming the limitations of short and noisy time series and should be highly relevant for many areas of science.
在生态分析中,复杂性一直被视为需要克服的障碍。在这里,我们提出了一种直接的方法来解决动态互联系统中的复杂性。我们表明,以多种相互作用的组件形式存在的复杂性实际上可以成为从时间数据研究自然系统的资产。核心思想是多维时间序列能够从多个角度重建系统动态,并且这些角度可以组合成一个单一的模型。我们展示了我们的方法,多视图嵌入(MVE),如何提高对模拟生态系统和中间实验的预测。通过利用复杂性,MVE 特别有效地克服了短时间序列和噪声的限制,应该与许多科学领域密切相关。