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基于地理信息系统的伊朗东北部戈勒斯坦省动物源性皮肤利什曼病的空间和时空分布分析。

Geographic information system-based analysis of the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan Province, north-east of Iran.

机构信息

Department of Geo-spatial Information System (GIS), Center of Excellence in GIS, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Zoonoses Public Health. 2015 Feb;62(1):18-28. doi: 10.1111/zph.12109. Epub 2014 Mar 17.


DOI:10.1111/zph.12109
PMID:24628913
Abstract

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), a vector-borne disease, poses serious psychological as well as social and economic burden to many rural areas of Iran. The main objectives of this study were to analyse yearly spatial distribution and the possible spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of the disease to better understand spatio-temporal epidemiological aspects of ZCL in rural areas of an endemic province, located in north-east of Iran. Cross-sectional survey was performed on 2983 recorded cases during the period of 2010-2012 at village level throughout the study area. Global clustering methods including the average nearest-neighbour distance, Moran's I, general G indices and Ripley's K-function were applied to investigate the annual spatial distribution of the existing point patterns. Presence of spatial and spatio-temporal clusters was investigated using the spatial and space-time scan statistics. For each year, semivariogram analysis and all global clustering methods indicated meaningful persistent spatial autocorrelation and highly clustered distribution of ZCL, respectively. Eight significant spatial clusters, mainly located in north and northeast of the province, and one space-time cluster, observed in northern part of the province and during the period of September 2010-November 2010, were detected. Comparison of the location of ZCL clusters with environmental conditions of the study area showed that 97.8% of cases in clusters were located at low altitudes below 725 m above sea level with predominantly arid and semi-arid climates and poor socio-economic conditions. The identified clusters highlight high-risk areas requiring special plans and resources for more close monitoring and control of the disease.

摘要

人兽共患皮肤利什曼病(ZCL)是一种媒介传播疾病,给伊朗许多农村地区带来了严重的心理、社会和经济负担。本研究的主要目的是分析该疾病的年空间分布以及可能存在的空间和时空聚集,以更好地了解伊朗东北部一个流行地区农村地区 ZCL 的时空流行病学特征。在研究期间(2010-2012 年),在村级层面上对 2983 例记录病例进行了横断面调查。应用全局聚类方法,包括平均最近邻距离、Moran's I、一般 G 指数和 Ripley 的 K 函数,分析现有点状模式的年度空间分布。应用空间和时空扫描统计来检测空间和时空聚集的存在。对于每一年,半变异函数分析和所有全局聚类方法都表明存在有意义的持续空间自相关和 ZCL 的高度聚集分布。检测到 8 个显著的空间聚集,主要位于该省的北部和东北部,以及一个时空聚集,位于该省的北部,时间为 2010 年 9 月至 11 月。将 ZCL 聚集的位置与研究区域的环境条件进行比较表明,聚集中的 97.8%的病例位于海拔低于 725 米的低海拔地区,主要气候为干旱和半干旱,社会经济条件较差。确定的聚集突出了高风险区域,需要特别计划和资源来更密切地监测和控制疾病。

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[4]
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