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应用定量微生物风险评估和伤残调整生命年评估河流沐浴带来的健康风险。

Applying QMRA and DALY to assess health risks from river bathing.

作者信息

Timm Christian, Luther Stephan, Jurzik Lars, Hamza Ibrahim Ahmed, Kistemann Thomas

机构信息

IHPH-Institute for Hygiene and Public Health, GeoHealth Centre, University of Bonn, 53105 Bonn, Germany.

IHPH-Institute for Hygiene and Public Health, GeoHealth Centre, University of Bonn, 53105 Bonn, Germany.

出版信息

Int J Hyg Environ Health. 2016 Oct;219(7 Pt B):681-692. doi: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2016.07.017. Epub 2016 Jul 26.

Abstract

To estimate the health impact of bathing in urban river waters a two-step risk assessment was conducted using the example of the Ruhr River in North-Rhine Westphalia (Germany). The risk of acquiring gastrointestinal illness (GI) due to bathing in the Ruhr River was the focus of this analysis. Referring to the WHO guidelines for safe recreational water environments, risk was defined as the probability of occurrence x severity of harm. Thus, the probability of acquiring GI by bathing in the Ruhr River has been calculated by means of the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) method. Additionally to this, harm was operationalized by using the DALY metric, quantifying the impact of disability for public health. The calculation of the DALYs based on the QMRA results, disease and lethality data of the population, duration of diseases, disability weights and a demographic profile of a regionally determined potential bathing population. DALYs were calculated for norovirus gastroenteritis, rotavirus gastroenteritis, cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis. The calculated DALYs were set into relation to other risks of daily life. Furthermore the effect of age weighting and time discounting for this site-specific population was considered. The viral load caused the main part of the environmental burden of disease by bathing in the river. The calculated DALYs are significantly lower than DALYs for all cause GI in Germany, which reach 1.19 DALY/1000, or DALYs accepted for an official EG designated bathing water (2.579 DALYs/1000 persons) but on a comparable level with the DALY for drowning (0.26 DALY/1000 Persons). The DALY concept provides a complementary tool to the QMRA for evaluating and comparing health risks arising from a specific environment for a specific population and behaviour and for comparing with other health risks of daily life.

摘要

为评估在城市河水中沐浴对健康的影响,以德国北莱茵 - 威斯特法伦州的鲁尔河为例进行了两步风险评估。本分析的重点是在鲁尔河沐浴导致胃肠道疾病(GI)的风险。参照世界卫生组织安全娱乐水环境指南,风险被定义为发生概率×危害严重程度。因此,通过定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)方法计算了在鲁尔河沐浴感染胃肠道疾病的概率。除此之外,通过使用伤残调整生命年(DALY)指标来量化危害,该指标用于衡量残疾对公众健康的影响。基于QMRA结果、人群的疾病和致死率数据、疾病持续时间、残疾权重以及区域确定的潜在沐浴人群的人口统计学概况来计算DALYs。针对诺如病毒胃肠炎、轮状病毒胃肠炎、隐孢子虫病和贾第虫病计算了DALYs。将计算出的DALYs与日常生活中的其他风险进行了比较。此外,还考虑了针对该特定地点人群的年龄加权和时间贴现的影响。在河中沐浴导致的疾病环境负担主要由病毒载量造成。计算出的DALYs显著低于德国所有原因导致的胃肠道疾病的DALYs(达到1.19 DALY/1000),或官方欧盟指定沐浴水所接受的DALYs(2.579 DALY/1000人),但与溺水的DALY(0.26 DALY/1000人)处于可比水平。DALY概念为QMRA提供了一种补充工具,用于评估和比较特定环境中特定人群和行为所产生的健康风险,并与日常生活中的其他健康风险进行比较。

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