Wu Xinrui, Li Qi, Luo Kaiwei, Tan Hongzhuan
Department of Epidemiolody and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, China.
Hunan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China.
Zhong Nan Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2016 Aug;41(8):865-71. doi: 10.11817/j.issn.1672-7347.2016.08.016.
To investigate the epidemiological situation and temporal-spatial clustering changes of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hunan.
Spatial autocorrelation and temporal-spatial clustering analysis were used to analyze the HFMD in Hunan.
The incidence rates of HFMD ranged from 54.31/10 million to 318.06/10 million between 2009 and 2015 in Hunan. Cases mainly displayed in 5-year-old or even younger children and there were two epidemic periods each year. HFMD cases did not show a random distribution but with significant spatial aggregation. When local autocorrelation analysis was applied at the county/district level, 4 hot spots in Changsha, Yiyang, Loudi and Zhuzhou were discovered. The tendency for temporal and spatial clustering existed among HFMD cases in Hunan. The temporal dimension of HFMD was from April to July annually. Clustering areas gathered in the northern regions in 2009 and in the middle regions from 2010 to 2012. They moved to middle-southern regions in 2013 or 2014 and middle-western regions in 2015.
The HFMD incidence from 2009 to 2015 in Hunan showed temporal and spatial clustering tendency, with the shifting trend of clustered areas toward south and west.
探讨湖南省手足口病（HFMD）的流行状况及时空聚集性变化。
采用空间自相关和时空聚集性分析方法对湖南省手足口病进行分析。
2009年至2015年湖南省手足口病发病率在54.31/1000万至318.06/1000万之间。病例主要集中在5岁及以下儿童，每年有两个流行期。手足口病病例并非随机分布，而是具有显著的空间聚集性。在县/区层面进行局部自相关分析时，发现长沙、益阳、娄底和株洲有4个热点地区。湖南省手足口病病例存在时空聚集趋势。手足口病的时间维度为每年4月至7月。聚集区域在2009年集中在北部地区，2010年至2012年集中在中部地区。2013年或2014年转移到中南部地区，2015年转移到中西部地区。
2009年至2015年湖南省手足口病发病率呈现时空聚集趋势，聚集区域有向南和向西转移的趋势。
