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中国 PM 所致过早死亡的长期趋势和空间格局。

Long-term trend and spatial pattern of PM induced premature mortality in China.

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, PR China.

School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.

出版信息

Environ Int. 2016 Dec;97:180-186. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.09.003. Epub 2016 Sep 7.

DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2016.09.003
PMID:27614532
Abstract

With rapid economic growth, China has witnessed increasingly frequent and severe haze and smog episodes over the past decade, posing serious health impacts to the Chinese population, especially those in densely populated city clusters. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variation of health impacts attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM) has important implications for China's policies on air pollution control. In this study, we evaluated the spatial distribution of premature deaths in China between 2000 and 2010 attributable to ambient PM in accord with the Global Burden of Disease based on a high resolution population density map of China, satellite retrieved PM concentrations, and provincial health data. Our results suggest that China's anthropogenic ambient PM led to 1,255,400 premature deaths in 2010, 42% higher than the level in 2000. Besides increased PM concentration, rapid urbanization has attracted large population migration into the more developed eastern coastal urban areas, intensifying the overall health impact. In addition, our analysis implies that health burdens were exacerbated in some developing inner provinces with high population density (e.g. Henan, Anhui, Sichuan) because of the relocation of more polluting and resource-intensive industries into these regions. In order to avoid such national level environmental inequities, China's regulations on PM should not be loosened in inner provinces. Furthermore policies should create incentive mechanisms that can promote transfer of advanced production and emissions control technologies from the coastal regions to the interior regions.

摘要

随着经济的快速增长,在过去十年中,中国频繁经历严重的雾霾天气,对中国人口,尤其是人口密集的城市群造成了严重的健康影响。量化归因于环境细颗粒物(PM)的健康影响的时空变化,对中国的空气污染控制政策具有重要意义。在这项研究中,我们根据全球疾病负担评估了 2000 年至 2010 年中国由于环境 PM 而导致的过早死亡的空间分布,这是基于中国高分辨率人口密度图、卫星获取的 PM 浓度和省级健康数据。我们的结果表明,2010 年中国人为的环境 PM 导致 125.54 万人过早死亡,比 2000 年增加了 42%。除了 PM 浓度的增加外,快速的城市化吸引了大量人口向更发达的东部沿海城市地区迁移,加剧了整体健康影响。此外,我们的分析表明,由于更多污染和资源密集型产业向这些地区转移,一些人口密度高的欠发达内陆省份(如河南、安徽、四川)的健康负担加重。为了避免这种国家层面的环境不公平,中国不应放松对 PM 的规定。此外,政策应创造激励机制,鼓励从沿海地区向内陆地区转移先进的生产和排放控制技术。

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