School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China.
School of Geosciences and Info-Physics, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China.
Environ Int. 2019 Apr;125:529-541. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.10.045. Epub 2019 Jan 3.
As a critical air pollutant, PM is proved to be associated with numerous adverse health impacts and pose serious challenges to human life. This situation is especially important for China as the most populous and one of the heaviest PM polluted country in the world. However, health burden estimations reported for China in previous studies may be biased due to the usage of PM concentrations at a coarsely spatial resolution, as well as the ignorance of the spatial discrepancies of parameters (e.g. respiratory rate) employed in the exposure-response function. This study therefore utilized a hybrid remote sensing-geostatistical approach to refine PM concentrations at 1 km resolution across mainland China from 2013 to 2017. Meanwhile, nationwide exposure parameters were for the first time introduced to weight the integrated exposure response (IER) function to calculate and spatially reallocate the corresponding PM-attributable premature deaths at 1 km resolution. Results showed that annually averaged PM concentrations in mainland China decreased by 39.5%, from 59.1 μg/m in 2013 to 35.8 μg/m in 2017. Subsequently, PM attributable premature deaths reduced 12.6%, from 1.20 million (95% CI: 0.57; 1.71) in 2013 to 1.05 million (95% CI: 0.44; 1.44) in 2017. This declining trend was found in most parts of China except some areas in Xinjiang, Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces. As a result, 214,821 (95% CI: 96,675; 302,897) life were saved with an estimated monetary value of US$ 210.14 billion (2011 values). However, it has to be acknowledged that, the central and northern China within priority areas of air pollution control were still experiencing high numbers of premature deaths due to the severe PM pollution and high-density population. But more worrying than these priority areas are those Harbin-Changchun Metropolitan Region, City Belt in Central Henan and Yangtze-Huaihe City Belt in non-priority areas, which also have been seriously suffering PM attributable premature deaths over 28, 000 cases per year. In conclusion, despite the huge gain in life-saving effects in China over the past five years with the help of air pollution intervention policy, future work on cleaner air and better human health is still strongly needed, especially in non-priority areas of air pollution control.
作为一种关键的空气污染物，PM 已被证明与许多不良健康影响有关，并对人类生活构成严重挑战。这种情况在中国尤为重要，因为中国是人口最多、污染最严重的国家之一。然而，由于之前研究中使用的 PM 浓度空间分辨率较粗，以及对暴露反应函数中参数（如呼吸率）的空间差异的忽视，因此报告的中国健康负担估计可能存在偏差。因此，本研究利用混合遥感-地质统计方法，对 2013 年至 2017 年中国大陆的 PM 浓度进行了 1km 分辨率的细化。同时，首次引入全国性的暴露参数，对综合暴露反应（IER）函数进行加权，以计算和重新分配 1km 分辨率下相应的 PM 归因于过早死亡的人数。结果表明，中国大陆的年均 PM 浓度下降了 39.5%，从 2013 年的 59.1μg/m3 降至 2017 年的 35.8μg/m3。随后，PM 归因于过早死亡的人数减少了 12.6%，从 2013 年的 120 万人（95%置信区间：57 万至 171 万）降至 2017 年的 105 万人（95%置信区间：44 万至 144 万）。这一下降趋势在中国大部分地区都有发现，除了新疆、吉林和黑龙江省的一些地区。因此，估计有 214821 人（95%置信区间：96675 至 302897）的生命得到了挽救，估计价值 2101.4 亿美元（2011 年）。然而，必须承认的是，在中国空气污染控制的重点地区，由于严重的 PM 污染和高密度人口，仍然有大量的过早死亡人数。但比这些重点地区更令人担忧的是哈尔滨-长春都市圈、中原城市群和长江-淮河城市群这些非重点地区，每年也有超过 28000 例 PM 归因于过早死亡的案例。总之，尽管过去五年在空气污染干预政策的帮助下，中国在挽救生命方面取得了巨大的成效，但仍需要在清洁空气和改善人类健康方面做更多的工作，特别是在空气污染控制的非重点地区。
