Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Medicine &Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, California, United States of America.
Environmental &Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait.
Sci Rep. 2016 Sep 14;6:33161. doi: 10.1038/srep33161.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has recently (2014-2015) re-emerged in the United States (US) causing the largest outbreak in US history with 232 outbreaks and an estimated economic impact of $950 million. This study proposes to use suitability maps for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to identify areas at high risk for HPAI outbreaks. LPAI suitability maps were based on wild bird demographics, LPAI surveillance, and poultry density in combination with environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors. Species distribution modeling was used to produce high-resolution (cell size: 500m x 500m) maps for Avian Influenza (AI) suitability in each of the four North American migratory flyways (NAMF). Results reveal that AI suitability is heterogeneously distributed throughout the US with higher suitability in specific zones of the Midwest and coastal areas. The resultant suitability maps adequately predicted most of the HPAI outbreak areas during the 2014-2015 epidemic in the US (i.e. 89% of HPAI outbreaks were located in areas identified as highly suitable for LPAI). Results are potentially useful for poultry producers and stakeholders in designing risk-based surveillance, outreach and intervention strategies to better prevent and control future HPAI outbreaks in the US.
高致病性禽流感（HPAI）最近（2014-2015 年）在美国重新出现，导致美国历史上最大规模的疫情爆发，共发生 232 起疫情，估计经济损失达 9.5 亿美元。本研究提出利用低致病性禽流感（LPAI）的适宜性地图来确定高致病性禽流感疫情爆发的高风险地区。LPAI 适宜性地图是基于野生鸟类的种群动态、LPAI 监测以及家禽密度，结合环境、气候和社会经济风险因素制作而成。物种分布模型用于制作高分辨率（单元格大小：500m x 500m）的北美四条候鸟迁徙路线（NAMF）的禽流感（AI）适宜性地图。结果表明，AI 适宜性在美国各地呈异质分布，中西部和沿海地区的适宜性较高。这些适宜性地图能够充分预测美国 2014-2015 年疫情期间大多数高致病性禽流感疫情爆发地区（即 89%的高致病性禽流感疫情爆发地区都位于 LPAI 高度适宜的地区）。这些结果对于家禽养殖者和利益相关者制定基于风险的监测、外展和干预策略具有潜在的作用，有助于更好地预防和控制美国未来的高致病性禽流感疫情。
