Wang Xueying, Wang Jin
a Department of Mathematics , Washington State University , Pullman , WA , USA.
b Department of Mathematics , University of Tennessee at Chattanooga , Chattanooga , TN , USA.
J Biol Dyn. 2017 Mar;11(sup1):238-262. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2016.1231850. Epub 2016 Sep 19.
A new modelling framework is proposed to study the within-host and between-host dynamics of cholera, a severe intestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The within-host dynamics are characterized by the growth of highly infectious vibrios inside the human body. These vibrios shed from humans contribute to the environmental bacterial growth and the transmission of the disease among humans, providing a link from the within-host dynamics at the individual level to the between-host dynamics at the population and environmental level. A fast-slow analysis is conducted based on the two different time scales in our model. In particular, a bifurcation study is performed, and sufficient and necessary conditions are derived that lead to a backward bifurcation in cholera epidemics. Our result regarding the backward bifurcation highlights the challenges in the prevention and control of cholera.
提出了一种新的建模框架来研究霍乱在宿主内和宿主间的动态变化，霍乱是由霍乱弧菌引起的一种严重肠道感染病。宿主内动态变化的特征是人体内部高传染性弧菌的生长。这些从人体排出的弧菌促进了环境中细菌的生长以及疾病在人群中的传播，建立了从个体层面的宿主内动态变化到群体和环境层面的宿主间动态变化的联系。基于我们模型中的两个不同时间尺度进行了快慢分析。特别地，进行了分岔研究，并得出了导致霍乱流行出现反向分岔的充分必要条件。我们关于反向分岔的结果突出了霍乱防控工作面临的挑战。
