Guo Xiaopeng, Ren Dongfang, Shi Jiaxing
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing, 102206, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2016 Dec;23(24):24758-24767. doi: 10.1007/s11356-016-7615-z. Epub 2016 Sep 22.
This paper studies the relationship among carbon emissions, GDP, and logistics by using a panel data model and a combination of statistics and econometrics theory. The model is based on the historical data of 10 typical provinces and cities in China during 2005-2014. The model in this paper adds the variability of logistics on the basis of previous studies, and this variable is replaced by the freight turnover of the provinces. Carbon emissions are calculated by using the annual consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas. GDP is the gross domestic product. The results showed that the amount of logistics and GDP have a contribution to carbon emissions and the long-term relationships are different between different cities in China, mainly influenced by the difference among development mode, economic structure, and level of logistic development. After the testing of panel model setting, this paper established a variable coefficient model of the panel. The influence of GDP and logistics on carbon emissions is obtained according to the influence factors among the variables. The paper concludes with main findings and provides recommendations toward rational planning of urban sustainable development and environmental protection for China.
本文运用面板数据模型以及统计学与计量经济学理论相结合的方法，研究碳排放、国内生产总值（GDP）与物流之间的关系。该模型基于2005 - 2014年中国10个典型省市的历史数据。本文的模型在以往研究的基础上增加了物流的变异性，此变量由各省份的货物周转量替代。碳排放通过煤炭、石油和天然气的年消费量来计算。GDP即国内生产总值。结果表明，物流规模和GDP对碳排放有贡献，且中国不同城市之间的长期关系有所不同，主要受发展模式、经济结构和物流发展水平差异的影响。在对面板模型设定进行检验后，本文建立了面板变系数模型。根据变量间的影响因素，得出了GDP和物流对碳排放的影响。本文最后给出主要研究结果，并针对中国城市可持续发展的合理规划和环境保护提出建议。
