School of Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Center for Research of Economics & Environment, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Aug 12;15(8):1730. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15081730.
Carbon productivity, defined as the gross domestic product (GDP) per unit of CO₂ emissions, has been used by provincial governments in China as in indicator for effort and effect in addressing climate-change problems. The aggregate impact of economic growth on carbon productivity is complex and worthy of extensive investigation to design effective environmental and economic policies. Based on a novel combination of the smooth transition regression model and the Markov regime-switching regression model, this paper analyzes time series data on carbon productivity and economic growth from Hubei Province in China. The results show that the influence of economic growth on carbon productivity is highly nonlinear. In general, economic growth has a positive impact on improving carbon productivity. From a longitudinal perspective, this nonlinear positive impact is further divided into three stages, transiting from a high regime to a low regime and then back to a high regime. The high regime stage, in which economic growth has stronger positive influence on enhancing carbon productivity, is expected to last for considerably longer time than the low regime stage. It is more probable for a low regime stage to transit to a high regime. Once the relation of carbon productivity and economic growth enters the high regime status it becomes relatively stable there. If the government aims to achieve higher carbon productivity, it is helpful to encourage stronger economic development. However, simply enhancing carbon productivity is not enough for curbing carbon emissions, especially for fast growing economies.
碳生产率是指单位二氧化碳排放量的国内生产总值，中国各省级政府将其作为应对气候变化问题的努力和效果指标。经济增长对碳生产率的综合影响较为复杂，值得深入研究，以制定有效的环境和经济政策。本文基于平滑转移回归模型和马尔科夫区制转换回归模型的新组合，对中国湖北省的碳生产率和经济增长的时间序列数据进行了分析。结果表明，经济增长对碳生产率的影响具有高度的非线性。总体而言，经济增长对提高碳生产率具有积极影响。从纵向看，这种非线性的积极影响进一步分为三个阶段，从高区制向低区制转变，然后再回到高区制。在经济增长对提高碳生产率具有更强积极影响的高区制阶段，预计持续时间将比低区制阶段长得多。低区制阶段向高区制阶段过渡的可能性更大。一旦碳生产率与经济增长的关系进入高区制状态，它就会变得相对稳定。如果政府旨在实现更高的碳生产率，鼓励更强的经济发展将有所帮助。然而，单纯提高碳生产率对于控制碳排放是不够的，尤其是对于快速增长的经济体。
