Robins J M, Greenland S
Occupational Health Program, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115.
Stat Med. 1989 Jul;8(7):845-59. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780080709.
This paper describes conditions under which epidemiologic data can provide estimates of the excess fraction (proportionate increase in caseload due to an exposure) and the etiologic fraction (fraction of cases caused by exposure). The excess fraction can be estimated under essentially the same conditions often cited for general study validity. In contrast, estimation of the etiologic fraction will usually require very specific non-identifiable assumptions about exposure action and interactions, although one can derive simple lower and upper bounds for the fraction from survival comparisons. Since the etiologic fraction is equivalent to the probability of causation, our results have implications for injury compensation in lawsuits involving the probability of causation.
本文描述了流行病学数据能够提供超额分数（由于暴露导致病例数的比例增加）和病因分数（由暴露引起的病例比例）估计值的条件。在通常为一般研究效度所引用的基本相同条件下，可以估计超额分数。相比之下，病因分数的估计通常需要关于暴露作用和相互作用的非常特定的不可识别假设，尽管可以从生存比较中得出该分数的简单下限和上限。由于病因分数等同于因果关系的概率，我们的结果对涉及因果关系概率的诉讼中的伤害赔偿具有影响。
