Kovalchik Stephanie A, Bane Michael K, Reid Machar
a Institute of Sport, Exercise and Active Living , Victoria University , Melbourne , Australia.
b College of Exercise & Sport Science , Electronic Arts , Melbourne , Australia.
J Sports Sci. 2017 Oct;35(19):1904-1910. doi: 10.1080/02640414.2016.1241419. Epub 2016 Oct 13.
Official rankings are the most common measure of success in professional women's tennis. Despite their importance for earning potential and tournament seeding, little is known about ranking trajectories of female players and their influence on career success. Our objective was to conduct a comprehensive study of the career progression of elite female tennis talent. The study examined the ranking trajectories of the top 250 female professionals between 1990 and 2015. Using regression modelling of yearly peak rankings, we found a strong association between the shape of the ranking trajectory and the highest career ranking earned. Players with the highest career peak ranking were the youngest when first ranked. For example, top 10 players were first ranked at age 15.5 years (99% CI = 14.8-15.9), 1.2 years (99% CI = 0.8-1.5) earlier than top 51-100 players. Top 10 players were also ranked in the top 100 longer than other players, holding a top 100 ranking until a mean age of 29.0 years (99% CI = 27.8-30.3) compared with age 24.4 years (99% CI = 23.7-25.2) for top 51-100 players. Ranking trajectories were more distinct with respect to player age than years from first ranking. The present study's findings will be instructive for players, coaches, and administrators in setting goals and assessing athlete development in women's tennis.
官方排名是衡量职业女子网球运动员成功与否的最常见指标。尽管排名对收入潜力和赛事种子排位很重要，但关于女运动员的排名轨迹及其对职业生涯成功的影响，我们却知之甚少。我们的目标是对精英女子网球人才的职业发展进行全面研究。该研究考察了1990年至2015年间排名前250位的女职业选手的排名轨迹。通过对年度最高排名进行回归建模，我们发现排名轨迹的形状与所获得的最高职业排名之间存在密切关联。职业最高排名峰值的选手首次排名时年龄最小。例如，排名前十的选手首次排名的年龄为15.5岁（99%置信区间=14.8-15.9），比排名51-100的选手早1.2年（99%置信区间=0.8-1.5）。排名前十的选手在排名前100的时间也比其他选手更长，保持前100排名的平均年龄为29.0岁（99%置信区间=27.8-30.3），而排名51-100的选手为24.4岁（99%置信区间=23.7-25.2）。排名轨迹在选手年龄方面比首次排名后的年份更为明显。本研究的结果将对女子网球运动员、教练和管理人员在设定目标和评估运动员发展方面具有指导意义。
