Sport Science Manager, Tennis Australia, Melbourne, Australia.
J Sports Sci. 2009 Nov;27(13):1443-8. doi: 10.1080/02640410903037714.
In this study, we examined the extent to which ranking in professional women's tennis can be predicted by that in the top 20 International Tennis Federation's Junior Circuit. The names, nationalities, and birth dates of all players who achieved a top-20 girls' year-end ranking from 1995 to 2002 were recorded, with their progress through the professional ranks tracked to March 2008. Ninety-nine percent of top-20 ranked girls achieved a professional women's ranking. Stepwise regression analysis revealed peak junior ranking and the age at which that rank was achieved to be predictors of future professional ranking (r(2) = 0.133, P < 0.05). The following regression equation showed the achievement of a top-20 junior rank as a reasonable benchmark in the development of professional women players: log-transformed predicted professional rank = -0.552 + (0.032 x junior rank + 0.116 x age at junior rank). The predominant court surface on which junior players honed their skills was also implicated in professional ranking success, with clay-court play linked to the development of higher-ranked players (P < or = 0.01).
在这项研究中，我们考察了排名在职业女子网球中可以通过排名在国际网球联合会青少年巡回赛前 20 名来预测的程度。记录了所有在 1995 年至 2002 年期间获得女子年终排名前 20 名的球员的姓名、国籍和出生日期，并追踪他们在 2008 年 3 月之前的职业排名情况。99%的前 20 名女孩获得了职业女子排名。逐步回归分析显示，青少年时期的最高排名和达到该排名的年龄是未来职业排名的预测因素（r²=0.133，P<0.05）。以下回归方程显示，获得青少年排名前 20 名是职业女子选手发展的合理基准：转换后的预测职业排名= -0.552+（0.032x 青少年排名+0.116x 青少年排名时的年龄）。青少年选手磨练技能的主要场地表面也与职业排名成功有关，红土球场与更高排名球员的发展有关（P≤0.01）。
