Institute for Biomedical and Epidemiological Research in Sport, Paris, France.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2011 Nov;43(11):2148-54. doi: 10.1249/MSS.0b013e31821eb533.
The victory percentages for tennis players who entered the top 10 women and men rankings show various evolutions related to age and time since 1968.
The study analyzed the careers of all top 10 players: 97 women (50,933 matches) and 144 men (92,450 matches). For each player, we describe a biphasic performance course. Two generations were compared: the first one (G1), including players who started their professional career before 1985, and the second one (G2), with players starting after 1985.
The average career length is 16.1 ± 3.8 yr for the top 10 men and 15.8 ± 4.4 yr for women. Compared with G1 players, G2 players begin earlier (women = 1.3 yr, men = 0.8 yr), but career length remains the same. An exponential model describes the time course of the victory percentage with a great similarity for both genders. Using this equation, the peak victory rate reaches 82.5% at 21.5 yr for number 1 (no. 1) women and 78.5% at 23.7 yr for no. 1 men, showing a greater precocity and earlier decline in women. Finally, the area under the curve shows a potential that is 22.8% (men) to 56.8% (women) larger for the no. 1 players as compared with all other numbers 2-10.
Tennis players in the top 10 show a biphasic career. Women reach their highest level earlier than men, consistent with their more precocious biological development. For the current generation, the peak performance tends toward a younger age than the first generation. We show how to precisely quantify and compare tennis performances using indicators that follow the trends of development and aging and demonstrate that precocity does not provide a larger victory potential.
自 1968 年以来，进入女子和男子前 10 名排名的网球选手的胜率显示出与年龄和时间相关的各种演变。
本研究分析了所有前 10 名选手的职业生涯：97 名女子（50933 场比赛）和 144 名男子（92450 场比赛）。对于每个选手，我们描述了一个双相表现过程。比较了两代人：第一代（G1）包括 1985 年前开始职业生涯的选手，第二代（G2）包括 1985 年后开始职业生涯的选手。
男子前 10 名选手的平均职业生涯长度为 16.1 ± 3.8 岁，女子为 15.8 ± 4.4 岁。与 G1 选手相比，G2 选手开始得更早（女子为 1.3 岁，男子为 0.8 岁），但职业生涯长度保持不变。指数模型描述了胜率的时间过程，两性之间具有高度相似性。使用该方程，女子排名第一（no.1）的选手达到 82.5%的胜率峰值年龄为 21.5 岁，男子排名第一（no.1）的选手达到 78.5%的胜率峰值年龄为 23.7 岁，这表明女子选手的早熟和更早衰退。最后，曲线下的面积表明，与所有其他排名 2-10 的选手相比，排名第一的选手的潜在胜率高出 22.8%（男子）至 56.8%（女子）。
排名前 10 的网球选手表现出双相职业生涯。女子达到最高水平的年龄早于男子，这与她们更早熟的生物发育一致。对于当前一代，最高表现的年龄趋于比第一代更早。我们展示了如何使用遵循发展和衰老趋势的指标精确量化和比较网球表现，并证明早熟并不能提供更大的胜利潜力。
