Barri Fernando Rafael
Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA), CONICET-UNC and Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Av. Vélez Sarsfield 299, CP 5000, Córdoba, Argentina.
PLoS One. 2016 Oct 14;11(10):e0164806. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164806. eCollection 2016.
Wildlife reintroduction is an increasingly used strategy to reverse anthropocene defaunation. For the purpose of ecosystem restoration, in 2007 the guanaco (Lama guanicoe) was reintroduced to the Quebrada del Condorito National Park, situated in the mountains of central Argentina. With the aim of developing management recommendations, the project included permanently monitoring the population to evaluate its dynamics and the ecological response of the individuals released into the area. Nine years later and after two releases of guanacos (113 individuals in 2007 without and 25 in 2011 with a pre-adaptation period), only 24 individuals, which conform three reproductive groups, and one group of solitary males were settled in the Park. Here I modeled a population viability analysis to evaluate extinction risk, using VORTEX software. Initial population structure, specified age distribution, mortality and reproductive rates, and mate monopolization recorded during field work were used in the model, whereas the remaining used demographic parameters, such as age of first offspring, maximum number of broods per year, mean foaling rate, and length of fecundity period, were taken from the literature. Each of the three different scenarios (without supplementation of individuals, and with a realistic and optimistic supplementation) and two possible catastrophic events (fires and food shortage) covering 100 years was repeated 1000 times. Even though the guanaco reintroduction project can be considered to have been partially successful since its start, the model predicts that the current reintroduced population could be extinct in the next few decades if no reinforcements occur, and that only a continuous supplementation can reach the probability that the population survives over the next 100 years. I conclude that, so far, the current population is at a high risk of extinction if further supplementation of individuals is discontinued.
野生动物重新引入是一种越来越多地被用于扭转人类世动物灭绝趋势的策略。为了恢复生态系统，2007年原驼（骆马属）被重新引入位于阿根廷中部山区的孔多里托峡谷国家公园。为了制定管理建议，该项目包括对种群进行长期监测，以评估其动态以及放归到该地区的个体的生态反应。九年后，在两次放归原驼（2007年放归113只，无预适应期；2011年放归25只，有预适应期）之后，只有24只个体在公园定居，它们形成了三个繁殖群体，还有一组独居雄性。在此，我使用VORTEX软件建立了种群生存力分析模型，以评估灭绝风险。模型中使用了初始种群结构、特定年龄分布、死亡率和繁殖率，以及野外工作期间记录的配偶独占情况，而其余使用的人口统计学参数，如首次产仔年龄、每年最大产仔数、平均产驹率和繁殖期长度，则取自文献。涵盖100年的三种不同情景（不补充个体、现实补充和乐观补充）以及两种可能的灾难性事件（火灾和食物短缺）中的每一种都重复模拟了1000次。尽管原驼重新引入项目自启动以来可被视为取得了部分成功，但模型预测，如果不进行种群补充，目前重新引入的种群可能在未来几十年内灭绝，并且只有持续补充才能使种群在未来100年内存活的概率达到一定水平。我得出结论，到目前为止，如果停止进一步补充个体，当前种群面临着很高的灭绝风险。
