一种通过沙漠风暴行动（1980 - 1993年）估算两伊战争期间伊拉克死亡人数时验证战争死亡率的新方法。
A Novel Method for Verifying War Mortality while Estimating Iraqi Deaths for the Iran-Iraq War through Operation Desert Storm (1980-1993).
作者信息
Li Shang-Ju, Flaxman Abraham, Lafta Riyadh, Galway Lindsay, Takaro Tim K, Burnham Gilbert, Hagopian Amy
机构信息
University of Washington School of Public Health, Department of Global Health, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
Al-Mustansiriya University School of Medicine, Baghdad, Iraq.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2016 Oct 21;11(10):e0164709. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164709. eCollection 2016.
OBJECTIVES
We estimated war-related Iraqi mortality for the period 1980 through 1993.
METHOD
To test our hypothesis that deaths reported by siblings (even dating back several decades) would correspond with war events, we compared sibling mortality reports with the frequency of independent news reports about violent historic events. We used data from a survey of 4,287 adults in 2000 Iraqi households conducted in 2011. Interviewees reported on the status of their 24,759 siblings. Death rates were applied to population estimates, 1980 to 1993. News report data came from the ProQuest New York Times database.
RESULTS
About half of sibling-reported deaths across the study period were attributed to direct war-related injuries. The Iran-Iraq war led to nearly 200,000 adult deaths, and the 1990-1991 First Gulf War generated another approximately 40,000 deaths. Deaths during peace intervals before and after each war were significantly lower. We found a relationship between total sibling-reported deaths and the tally of war events across the period, p = 0.02.
CONCLUSIONS
We report a novel method to verify the reliability of epidemiological (household survey) estimates of direct war-related injury mortality dating back several decades.
目标
我们估算了1980年至1993年期间与战争相关的伊拉克死亡率。
方法
为检验我们的假设，即兄弟姐妹报告的死亡情况（即使可追溯到几十年前）会与战争事件相符，我们将兄弟姐妹的死亡报告与关于暴力历史事件的独立新闻报道频率进行了比较。我们使用了2011年对伊拉克2000个家庭中的4287名成年人进行调查的数据。受访者报告了他们24759名兄弟姐妹的状况。死亡率应用于1980年至1993年的人口估计。新闻报道数据来自ProQuest《纽约时报》数据库。
结果
在整个研究期间，约一半由兄弟姐妹报告的死亡归因于与战争直接相关的伤害。两伊战争导致近20万成年人死亡，1990 - 1991年的第一次海湾战争又造成了约4万人死亡。每次战争前后和平时期的死亡人数明显较低。我们发现整个期间兄弟姐妹报告的总死亡人数与战争事件记录之间存在关联，p = 0.02。
结论
我们报告了一种新方法，用于验证几十年前与战争直接相关的伤害死亡率的流行病学（家庭调查）估计的可靠性。
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