老年人口在哪些社区正在扩张？：30年间美国四个城市老年人口社区轨迹类别中的社会人口学和建成环境特征
In which neighborhoods are older adult populations expanding?: Sociodemographic and built environment characteristics across neighborhood trajectory classes of older adult populations in four U.S. cities over 30 Years.
作者信息
Rummo Pasquale E, Hirsch Jana A, Howard Annie Green, Gordon-Larsen Penny
机构信息
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 Department of Nutrition, Gillings School of Global Public Health, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516.
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 Centre for Hip Health and Mobility, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
出版信息
Gerontol Geriatr Med. 2016 Jan-Dec;2. doi: 10.1177/2333721416655966. Epub 2016 Jun 28.
OBJECTIVES
We sought to examine characteristics of neighborhoods with changing older adult populations.
METHODS
We used 30 years (1980-2011) of data from four U.S. cities (n=392 neighborhoods; Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; Oakland, CA) and finite mixture modeling to identify trajectory classes: neighborhoods with "stable", declining, or increasing older adult populations (≥65 years). We then compared mean baseline and change in their characteristics.
RESULTS
Neighborhoods with increasing (vs. "stable") percentage of older adult populations had lower initial poverty and greater increases in education and income, with lower increases in road connectivity, population density, and housing prices/debt over time. The same was true for neighborhoods with declining older adult populations, with the exception of having higher increases in housing prices/debt. We observed few significant differences in neighborhood amenities or parks across classes.
CONCLUSIONS
Our results emphasize the need to consider built and social environments when planning communities for older adults.
目标
我们试图研究老年人口不断变化的社区的特征。
方法
我们使用了来自美国四个城市（n = 392个社区；阿拉巴马州伯明翰市、伊利诺伊州芝加哥市、明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市、加利福尼亚州奥克兰市）30年（1980 - 2011年）的数据，并采用有限混合模型来确定轨迹类别：老年人口（≥65岁）“稳定”、减少或增加的社区。然后我们比较了它们的平均基线及其特征变化。
结果
老年人口百分比增加（相对于“稳定”）的社区初始贫困率较低，教育和收入增长幅度较大，随着时间的推移，道路连通性、人口密度和房价/债务的增长幅度较小。老年人口减少的社区情况也是如此，只是房价/债务的增长幅度较高。我们观察到不同类别社区在便利设施或公园方面几乎没有显著差异。
结论
我们的结果强调了在为老年人规划社区时考虑建成环境和社会环境的必要性。
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