Kirkeby Carsten, Græsbøll Kaare, Nielsen Søren Saxmose, Christiansen Lasse E, Toft Nils, Rattenborg Erik, Halasa Tariq
DTU VET, Section for Epidemiology, Technical University of Denmark , Frederiksberg , Denmark.
DTU VET, Section for Epidemiology, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksberg, Denmark; DTU Compute, Section for Dynamical Systems, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksberg, Denmark.
Front Vet Sci. 2016 Oct 10;3:90. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2016.00090. eCollection 2016.
We describe a new mechanistic bioeconomic model for simulating the spread of subsp. (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build up in five separate areas of the farm; infection; infection colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e., due to other diseases) by including a ranking system. We calibrated the model using a unique dataset from Denmark, including 102 random farms with no control actions against spread of MAP. Likewise, four control actions recommended in the Danish MAP control program were implemented in the model based on reported management strategies in Danish dairy herds in a MAP control scheme. We tested the model parameterization in a sensitivity analysis. We show that a test-and-cull strategy is on average the most cost-effective solution to decrease the prevalence and increase the total net revenue on a farm with low hygiene, but not more profitable than no control strategy on a farm with average hygiene. Although it is possible to eradicate MAP from the farm by implementing all four control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering the prevalence when used independently.
我们描述了一种新的机械生物经济模型，用于模拟副结核分枝杆菌亚种（MAP）在奶牛群中的传播情况。该模型包括与年龄相关的感染易感性；与年龄相关的检测敏感性；农场五个不同区域中环境中MAP的积累情况；通过初乳和废乳感染；感染情况，并且通过纳入一个排名系统来实现实际的淘汰（即由于其他疾病）。我们使用来自丹麦的独特数据集对该模型进行了校准，该数据集包括102个对MAP传播未采取控制措施的随机农场。同样，基于丹麦奶牛群在MAP控制方案中的报告管理策略，在模型中实施了丹麦MAP控制计划中推荐的四项控制措施。我们在敏感性分析中测试了模型参数化。我们表明，在卫生条件差的农场，平均而言，检测与淘汰策略是降低患病率和增加农场总净收入的最具成本效益的解决方案，但在卫生条件一般的农场，其盈利能力并不比不采取控制策略更高。虽然通过实施丹麦MAP控制计划中的所有四项控制措施有可能从农场根除MAP，但由于控制措施的费用超过了收益，因此在经济上并不具有吸引力。此外，在农场中针对MAP传播的三种最常用控制措施在单独使用时，发现成本高昂且在降低患病率方面效率低下。
