Rasmussen Philip, Barkema Herman W, Hall David C
Department of Ecosystem and Public Health, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Department of Production Animal Health, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Front Vet Sci. 2021 Jan 15;7:614727. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2020.614727. eCollection 2020.
Johne's disease (JD or paratuberculosis) control programs have been established in many dairy-producing regions. However, the effectiveness (reduction of within-herd prevalence) and the relative economic impact as measured by, for example, the ratio of benefits to costs (BCR) across a comprehensive selection of regions and potential control practices require further investigation. Within a Markovian framework using region-specific economic variables, it was estimated that vaccination was the most promising type of JD control practice modeled, with dual-effect vaccines (reducing shedding and providing protective immunity) having BCRs between 1.48 and 2.13 in Canada, with a break-even period of between 6.17 and 7.61 years. Dual-effect vaccines were also estimated to yield BCRs greater than one in almost all major dairy-producing regions, with greater ratios in regions characterized by above-average farm-gate prices and annual production per cow. Testing and culling was comparably effective to a dual-effect vaccine at test sensitivities >70% but would remain economically unviable in almost all regions modeled.
许多乳制品生产地区已建立了副结核病（JD或副结核）控制项目。然而，在广泛选择的地区和潜在控制措施中，其有效性（降低牛群患病率）以及以效益成本比（BCR）衡量的相对经济影响仍需进一步研究。在一个使用特定地区经济变量的马尔可夫框架内，据估计，疫苗接种是所模拟的最有前景的副结核病控制措施类型，在加拿大，双效疫苗（减少排菌并提供保护性免疫）的BCR在1.48至2.13之间，收支平衡期在6.17至7.61年之间。据估计，在几乎所有主要乳制品生产地区，双效疫苗的BCR也大于1，在农场门市价格和每头牛年生产量高于平均水平的地区，该比率更高。在检测灵敏度>70%时，检测和扑杀与双效疫苗的效果相当，但在几乎所有模拟地区，其在经济上仍不可行。
