Pre-event trajectories of mental health and health-related disabilities, and post-event traumatic stress symptoms and health: A 7-wave population-based study.

It is unknown to what extent classes of trajectories of pre-event mental health problems (MHP) and health-related disabilities (HRD), predict post-event traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), MHP and HRD. Aim of the present 7-wave study was to assess the predictive values using a representative sample of adult Dutch (N=4052) participating in three health-surveys in November-December 2009 (T1), 2010 (T2), 2011 (T3). In total, 2988 out of 4052 also participated in trauma-surveys in April(T4), August(T5) and December(T6) 2012 and a fourth health-survey in November-December 2012 (T7). About 10% (N=314) was confronted with potentially traumatic events (PTE) in the 4 months before T4 or T5. Latent class analyses among 4052 respondents identified four classes of pre-event MHP and HRD. Series of multivariate logistic regression analyses with class membership, peri-traumatic stress, type of event, gender, age and education as predictors, showed that classes with high levels of MHP or HRD, were more at risk for high levels of PTSS at baseline and follow-ups at 4 and 8 months, than classes with low levels of MHP or HRD. These classes were very strong predictors for high levels of post-event MHP and HRD: no differences were found between non-affected and affected respondents with different levels of peri-traumatic stress.