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改良早期预警评分结合快速乳酸水平(ViEWS-L)对65岁及以上急诊科就诊患者死亡率的预测价值。

The predictive value of the modified early warning score with rapid lactate level (ViEWS-L) for mortality in patients of age 65 or older visiting the emergency department.

作者信息

Cetınkaya Hasan Basri, Koksal Ozlem, Sigirli Deniz, Leylek Emrah Habip, Karasu Ozlem

机构信息

Uludag University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Emergency, Bursa, Turkey.

Uludag University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Biostatistics, Bursa, Turkey.

出版信息

Intern Emerg Med. 2017 Dec;12(8):1253-1257. doi: 10.1007/s11739-016-1559-7. Epub 2016 Nov 1.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to detect the predictive power of the modified early warning score with rapid lactate level (ViEWS-L) on mortality in critical patients over the age of 65 years admitted to the emergency department (ED). A total of 616 non-traumatic patients admitted to the Uludag University Faculty of Medicine ED who were 65 years of age or older were included in this study (Ethics board number: 2015-4/8). In this prospective study; the ViEWS-L score of the patients were calculated. The results have been evaluated with rate of mortality in the first 24 h starting from submission. The area under the ROC curve was found 0.872 and the cut-off value to detect mortality was found 10.83 for the ViEWS-L score. In the model obtained by the univariate binary logistic regression analysis, ViEWS-L score was found statistically significant and it was determined that mortality risk increased 1.286 times for each unit increase in the score of ViEWS-L score. As a result of this research, it was found that ViEWS-L scoring system is effective in determining the mortality of 65 years and older patients.

摘要

本研究旨在检测改良早期预警评分结合快速乳酸水平(ViEWS-L)对急诊科(ED)收治的65岁以上危重症患者死亡率的预测能力。本研究纳入了乌鲁达大学医学院急诊科收治的616例65岁及以上的非创伤性患者(伦理委员会编号:2015 - 4/8)。在这项前瞻性研究中,计算了患者的ViEWS-L评分。结果根据提交后最初24小时内的死亡率进行评估。ViEWS-L评分的ROC曲线下面积为0.872,检测死亡率的截断值为10.83。在单变量二元逻辑回归分析得到的模型中,ViEWS-L评分具有统计学意义,且确定ViEWS-L评分每增加一个单位,死亡风险增加1.286倍。本研究结果表明,ViEWS-L评分系统在确定65岁及以上患者的死亡率方面是有效的。

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