Schmidhuber Josef, Tubiello Francesco N
Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization, 00100 Rome, Italy.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Dec 11;104(50):19703-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701976104. Epub 2007 Dec 6.
This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses.
本文综述了气候变化对粮食安全的潜在影响。研究发现，在粮食安全的四个主要要素，即可获得性、稳定性、利用和获取中，只有第一个要素在模拟研究中得到了常规处理。为此，已发表的结果表明，气候变化的影响是显著的，然而，预计范围很广（到2080年，新增面临饥饿风险的人数在500万至1.7亿之间），这在很大程度上取决于假定的社会经济发展情况。本文还定性讨论了气候变化对粮食安全其他重要方面可能产生的影响，表明除目前模型评估的影响之外，还可能产生进一步的负面影响。最后，讨论了当前评估研究的优缺点，提出了改进建议和新的分析途径。
