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他们在想什么?减少寿命样本中的沉没成本偏差。

What were they thinking? Reducing sunk-cost bias in a life-span sample.

作者信息

Strough JoNell, Bruine de Bruin Wändi, Parker Andrew M, Karns Tara, Lemaster Philip, Pichayayothin Nipat, Delaney Rebecca, Stoiko Rachel

机构信息

Department of Psychology, West Virginia University.

Centre for Decision Research, University of Leeds.

出版信息

Psychol Aging. 2016 Nov;31(7):724-736. doi: 10.1037/pag0000130.

Abstract

We tested interventions to reduce "sunk-cost bias," the tendency to continue investing in failing plans even when those plans have soured and are no longer rewarding. We showed members of a national U.S. life-span panel a hypothetical scenario about a failing plan that was halfway complete. Participants were randomly assigned to an intervention to focus on how to improve the situation, an intervention to focus on thoughts and feelings, or a no-intervention control group. First, we found that the thoughts and feelings intervention reduced sunk-cost bias in decisions about project completion, as compared to the improvement intervention and the no-intervention control. Second, older age was associated with greater willingness to cancel the failing plan across all 3 groups. Third, we found that introspection processes helped to explain the effectiveness of the interventions. Specifically, the larger reduction in sunk-cost bias as observed in the thoughts and feelings intervention (vs. the improvement intervention) was associated with suppression of future-oriented thoughts of eventual success, and with suppression of augmentations of the scenario that could make it seem reasonable to continue the plan. Fourth, we found that introspection processes were related to age differences in decisions. Older people were less likely to mention future-oriented thoughts of eventual success associated with greater willingness to continue the failing plan. We discuss factors to consider when designing interventions for reducing sunk-cost bias. (PsycINFO Database Record

摘要

我们测试了旨在减少“沉没成本偏差”的干预措施,即即便计划已经恶化且不再有回报,仍倾向于继续在失败的计划上投入的趋势。我们向一个美国全国寿命面板的成员展示了一个关于一个已进行到一半的失败计划的假设情景。参与者被随机分配到一个专注于如何改善情况的干预组、一个专注于想法和感受的干预组或一个无干预对照组。首先,我们发现,与改善干预组和无干预对照组相比,想法和感受干预组在关于项目完成的决策中减少了沉没成本偏差。其次,在所有三个组中,年龄较大与更愿意取消失败计划相关。第三,我们发现内省过程有助于解释干预措施的有效性。具体而言,在想法和感受干预组(与改善干预组相比)中观察到的沉没成本偏差的更大减少与对最终成功的未来导向性想法的抑制以及对可能使继续该计划看起来合理的情景扩充的抑制相关。第四,我们发现内省过程与决策中的年龄差异有关。老年人不太可能提及与更愿意继续失败计划相关的最终成功的未来导向性想法。我们讨论了在设计减少沉没成本偏差的干预措施时需要考虑的因素。(《心理学文摘数据库记录》 )

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