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What were they thinking? Reducing sunk-cost bias in a life-span sample.他们在想什么?减少寿命样本中的沉没成本偏差。
Psychol Aging. 2016 Nov;31(7):724-736. doi: 10.1037/pag0000130.
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Getting older isn't all that bad: better decisions and coping when facing "sunk costs".变老并非全是坏事:面对“沉没成本”时能做出更好的决策并应对。
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How does cognitive dissonance influence the sunk cost effect?认知失调如何影响沉没成本效应?
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Motivational Reasons for Biased Decisions: The Sunk-Cost Effect's Instrumental Rationality.有偏差决策的动机性原因:沉没成本效应的工具理性
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本文引用的文献

1
Hour glass half full or half empty? Future time perspective and preoccupation with negative events across the life span.杯子是半满还是半空?未来时间视角与一生对负面事件的过度关注。
Psychol Aging. 2016 Sep;31(6):558-73. doi: 10.1037/pag0000097. Epub 2016 Jun 6.
2
Choosing to be happy? Age differences in "maximizing" decision strategies and experienced emotional well-being.选择变得快乐?“最大化”决策策略与体验到的情绪幸福感中的年龄差异。
Psychol Aging. 2016 May;31(3):295-300. doi: 10.1037/pag0000073. Epub 2016 Feb 25.
3
New perspectives for motivating better decisions in older adults.激发老年人做出更好决策的新视角。
Front Psychol. 2015 Jun 22;6:783. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00783. eCollection 2015.
4
Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making.成人双信息加工的年龄差异:对情感和深思熟虑过程在老年人决策中的作用的影响。
Perspect Psychol Sci. 2007 Mar;2(1):1-23. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6916.2007.00025.x.
5
Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: an item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI).负面决策结果在决策能力较低的人群中更为常见:决策结果量表(DOI)的项目层面分析。
Front Psychol. 2015 Apr 7;6:363. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00363. eCollection 2015.
6
Sound credit scores and financial decisions despite cognitive aging.尽管存在认知衰老,仍拥有良好的信用评分和做出明智的财务决策。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jan 6;112(1):65-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1413570112. Epub 2014 Dec 22.
7
Getting older isn't all that bad: better decisions and coping when facing "sunk costs".变老并非全是坏事:面对“沉没成本”时能做出更好的决策并应对。
Psychol Aging. 2014 Sep;29(3):642-7. doi: 10.1037/a0036308.
8
"Thinking about numbers is not my idea of fun": need for cognition mediates age differences in numeracy performance.“思考数字可不是我所认为的乐趣”:认知需求调节了计算能力表现上的年龄差异。
Med Decis Making. 2015 Jan;35(1):22-6. doi: 10.1177/0272989X14542485. Epub 2014 Jul 17.
9
Sunk costs in the human brain.人类大脑中的沉没成本。
Neuroimage. 2014 Aug 15;97:127-33. doi: 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2014.04.036. Epub 2014 Apr 18.
10
Complementary cognitive capabilities, economic decision making, and aging.互补认知能力、经济决策与衰老。
Psychol Aging. 2013 Sep;28(3):595-613. doi: 10.1037/a0034172.

他们在想什么?减少寿命样本中的沉没成本偏差。

What were they thinking? Reducing sunk-cost bias in a life-span sample.

作者信息

Strough JoNell, Bruine de Bruin Wändi, Parker Andrew M, Karns Tara, Lemaster Philip, Pichayayothin Nipat, Delaney Rebecca, Stoiko Rachel

机构信息

Department of Psychology, West Virginia University.

Centre for Decision Research, University of Leeds.

出版信息

Psychol Aging. 2016 Nov;31(7):724-736. doi: 10.1037/pag0000130.

DOI:10.1037/pag0000130
PMID:27831712
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5125514/
Abstract

We tested interventions to reduce "sunk-cost bias," the tendency to continue investing in failing plans even when those plans have soured and are no longer rewarding. We showed members of a national U.S. life-span panel a hypothetical scenario about a failing plan that was halfway complete. Participants were randomly assigned to an intervention to focus on how to improve the situation, an intervention to focus on thoughts and feelings, or a no-intervention control group. First, we found that the thoughts and feelings intervention reduced sunk-cost bias in decisions about project completion, as compared to the improvement intervention and the no-intervention control. Second, older age was associated with greater willingness to cancel the failing plan across all 3 groups. Third, we found that introspection processes helped to explain the effectiveness of the interventions. Specifically, the larger reduction in sunk-cost bias as observed in the thoughts and feelings intervention (vs. the improvement intervention) was associated with suppression of future-oriented thoughts of eventual success, and with suppression of augmentations of the scenario that could make it seem reasonable to continue the plan. Fourth, we found that introspection processes were related to age differences in decisions. Older people were less likely to mention future-oriented thoughts of eventual success associated with greater willingness to continue the failing plan. We discuss factors to consider when designing interventions for reducing sunk-cost bias. (PsycINFO Database Record

摘要

我们测试了旨在减少“沉没成本偏差”的干预措施,即即便计划已经恶化且不再有回报,仍倾向于继续在失败的计划上投入的趋势。我们向一个美国全国寿命面板的成员展示了一个关于一个已进行到一半的失败计划的假设情景。参与者被随机分配到一个专注于如何改善情况的干预组、一个专注于想法和感受的干预组或一个无干预对照组。首先,我们发现,与改善干预组和无干预对照组相比,想法和感受干预组在关于项目完成的决策中减少了沉没成本偏差。其次,在所有三个组中,年龄较大与更愿意取消失败计划相关。第三,我们发现内省过程有助于解释干预措施的有效性。具体而言,在想法和感受干预组(与改善干预组相比)中观察到的沉没成本偏差的更大减少与对最终成功的未来导向性想法的抑制以及对可能使继续该计划看起来合理的情景扩充的抑制相关。第四,我们发现内省过程与决策中的年龄差异有关。老年人不太可能提及与更愿意继续失败计划相关的最终成功的未来导向性想法。我们讨论了在设计减少沉没成本偏差的干预措施时需要考虑的因素。(《心理学文摘数据库记录》 )