Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Sci Rep. 2016 Nov 28;6:37548. doi: 10.1038/srep37548.
Large spread appears in the projection of air-sea CO fluxes using the latest simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Here, two methods are applied to narrow this spread in 13 CMIP5 models. One method involves model selection based on the ability of models to reproduce the observed air-sea CO fluxes from 1980 to 2005. The other method involves constrained estimation based on the strong relationship between the historical and future air-sea CO fluxes. The estimated spread of the projected air-sea CO fluxes is effectively reduced by using these two approaches. These two approaches also show great agreement in the global ocean and three regional oceans of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, including the average state and evolution characteristics. Based on the projections of the two approaches, the global ocean carbon uptake will increase in the first half of the 21 century then remain relatively stable and is projected to be 3.68-4.57 PgC/yr at the end of 21 century. The projections indicate that the increase in the CO uptake by the oceans will cease at the year of approximately 2070.
使用最新的耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）模拟，大的扩展出现在海气 CO 通量的投影中。在这里，应用了两种方法来缩小 13 个 CMIP5 模型中的这种扩展。一种方法涉及基于模型复制 1980 年至 2005 年观测到的海气 CO 通量的能力的模型选择。另一种方法涉及基于历史和未来海气 CO 通量之间的强关系的约束估计。使用这两种方法可以有效地减少预测海气 CO 通量的扩展。这两种方法在赤道太平洋、北大西洋和南大洋的三个区域海洋以及全球海洋中的平均状态和演化特征方面也具有很好的一致性。基于这两种方法的预测，全球海洋碳吸收量将在 21 世纪上半叶增加，然后保持相对稳定，并预计在 21 世纪末达到 3.68-4.57 PgC/yr。预测表明，海洋对 CO 的吸收量的增加将在大约 2070 年停止。
