Reneker J L, Kamel S J
Department of Biology and Marine Biology, Center for Marine Science, University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina, 28409, USA.
Ecology. 2016 Dec;97(12):3257-3264. doi: 10.1002/ecy.1603.
The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures, along with major adjustments to precipitation, throughout the 21st century. Species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination are highly susceptible to such changes since the incubation environment influences critical offspring characteristics such as survival and sex ratio. Here we show that the mean incubation duration of loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests from a high-density nesting beach on Bald Head Island, North Carolina, USA has decreased significantly over the past 25 yr. This decrease in incubation duration is significantly positively correlated with mean air temperature and negatively correlated with mean precipitation during the nesting season. Additionally, although no change in hatching success was detected during this same period, a potentially detrimental consequence of shorter incubation durations is that they lead to the production of primarily female offspring. Given that global temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 4°C over the next century, the mass feminization of sea turtle hatchlings is a high-priority concern. While presently limited in number, studies using long-term data sets to examine the temporal correlation between offspring characteristics and climatic trends are essential for understanding the scope and direction of climate change effects on species persistence.
最新的气候变化预测显示，在整个21世纪，全球气温将上升，降水也会有重大调整。表现出温度依赖型性别决定的物种极易受到此类变化的影响，因为孵化环境会影响关键的后代特征，如存活率和性别比例。在此，我们表明，在美国北卡罗来纳州秃头岛一个高密度筑巢海滩上，蠵龟（Caretta caretta）巢穴的平均孵化时长在过去25年里显著缩短。孵化时长的这种缩短与筑巢季节的平均气温呈显著正相关，与平均降水量呈负相关。此外，尽管在此期间未检测到孵化成功率的变化，但孵化时长缩短的一个潜在有害后果是，它们主要导致雌性后代的产生。鉴于预计下个世纪全球气温将上升多达4°C，海龟幼崽的大规模雌性化是一个高度优先关注的问题。虽然目前此类研究数量有限，但利用长期数据集来检验后代特征与气候趋势之间的时间相关性，对于理解气候变化对物种存续的影响范围和方向至关重要。
