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基于特征的小型淡水鱼类灭绝风险预测

Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes.

作者信息

Kopf R Keller, Shaw Casey, Humphries Paul

机构信息

Institute for Land Water & Society and School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2640, Australia.

School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, New South Wales, 2640, Australia.

出版信息

Conserv Biol. 2017 Jun;31(3):581-591. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12882. Epub 2017 Jan 30.

Abstract

Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.

摘要

体型较小通常与r-选择的生活史特征相关,包括早熟、世代时间短和生长速度快,这些特征导致高种群周转率和降低的灭绝风险。然而,与其他脊椎动物类别不同,小型淡水鱼似乎比大型鱼类面临同等或更高的灭绝风险。我们探讨了特定特征是否能解释来自4个温带流域的小型淡水鱼在国际自然保护联盟(IUCN)红色名录中的保护状况:澳大利亚的墨累-达令河;欧洲的多瑙河;北美洲的密西西比-密苏里河;以及北美洲的格兰德河。我们整理了171种全长≤120毫米的淡水鱼的23个生态和生活史特征。我们使用广义线性混合效应模型来评估这23个特征的哪种组合最能解释一个物种是否受到威胁。我们使用最佳模型来预测29种未分类物种被列为受威胁物种的概率。在控制和不控制科级系统发育的情况下,在小型物种中,体型小是与受威胁物种名录相关的最有影响力的特征。k折交叉验证表明,体型和包含科的随机效应结构预测威胁状况的准确率为78%(标准误0.5)。我们确定了10种可能受到威胁但未被列入IUCN红色名录的物种。体型小并不是一种能普遍抵抗灭绝的特征,特别是对于栖息在受极端栖息地丧失和破碎化影响环境中的脊椎动物。我们推测这是因为小型物种的活动范围较小、扩散能力较低,并且相对于大型脊椎动物具有更高的生态特化程度。需要特征数据和进一步的模型开发来预测超过11000种未分类淡水鱼的IUCN保护状况,特别是那些受到世界上生物多样性最丰富流域拟建大坝威胁的鱼类。

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