Weil Sarah-Sophie, Lavergne Sébastien, Boucher Florian C, Allen William L, Gallien Laure
Department of Biodiversity, Macroecology & Biogeography, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
Université Grenoble Alpes, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Grenoble, France.
Ecol Lett. 2025 Jul;28(7):e70171. doi: 10.1111/ele.70171.
Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown due to insufficient data on updated distributions, population sizes and population trends and using ecological indicator traits, such as range size, is not always straightforward. Recent advances suggest that macroevolutionary indicators (rates of extinction, net diversification or niche evolution) could provide novel insights into extinction risk based on the assumption that macroevolutionary rates can serve as proxies for extinction-promoting traits (small range size, narrow niche breadth or low evolutionary potential). However, this assumption has not yet been sufficiently investigated to use this approach. Here, we assess current understanding of the assumptions underlying the relationship between macroevolutionary indices and contemporary extinction risk. We find that only past extinction rates can be reliable predictors of current extinction risk due to their correlation with inherited extinction-promoting traits. Assumptions underlying relationships between current extinction risk and diversification and niche evolution rates vary by taxon or ecological conditions, and require further investigation through targeted studies. When underlying assumptions are validated, macroevolutionary indicators could be promising tools complementing trait-based approaches in identifying inherent extinction risk.
当前的全球变化正驱使许多物种走向灭绝，因此尽早发现受威胁物种成为高效开展保护行动的首要任务。然而，由于缺乏关于物种最新分布、种群规模和种群趋势的足够数据，许多物种的受威胁状况仍不明确，而且利用生态指示性状（如分布范围大小）并非总是易事。最近的研究进展表明，宏观进化指标（灭绝速率、净多样化速率或生态位进化速率）可以基于宏观进化速率可作为促进灭绝性状（小分布范围、窄生态位宽度或低进化潜力）的替代指标这一假设，为灭绝风险提供新的见解。然而，这一假设尚未得到充分研究，无法采用这种方法。在此，我们评估了当前对宏观进化指标与当代灭绝风险之间关系的假设的理解。我们发现，只有过去的灭绝速率能够可靠地预测当前的灭绝风险，因为它们与遗传的促进灭绝性状相关。当前灭绝风险与多样化速率和生态位进化速率之间关系的假设因分类群或生态条件而异，需要通过针对性研究进一步调查。当潜在假设得到验证时，宏观进化指标可能成为在识别内在灭绝风险方面补充基于性状方法的有前景的工具。
