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在对韩国的其他气候因素进行调整后,太阳辐射会增加自杀率。

Solar radiation increases suicide rate after adjusting for other climate factors in South Korea.

作者信息

Jee Hee-Jung, Cho Chul-Hyun, Lee Yu Jin, Choi Nari, An Hyonggin, Lee Heon-Jeong

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.

Department of Psychiatry, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.

出版信息

Acta Psychiatr Scand. 2017 Mar;135(3):219-227. doi: 10.1111/acps.12676. Epub 2016 Dec 16.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have indicated that suicide rates have significant seasonal variations. There is seasonal discordance between temperature and solar radiation due to the monsoon season in South Korea. We investigated the seasonality of suicide and assessed its association with climate variables in South Korea.

METHOD

Suicide rates were obtained from the National Statistical Office of South Korea, and climatic data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration for the period of 1992-2010. We conducted analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM). First, we explored the seasonality of suicide and climate variables such as mean temperature, daily temperature range, solar radiation, and relative humidity. Next, we identified confounding climate variables associated with suicide rate. To estimate the adjusted effect of solar radiation on the suicide rate, we investigated the confounding variables using a multivariable GAM.

RESULTS

Suicide rate showed seasonality with a pattern similar to that of solar radiation. We found that the suicide rate increased 1.008 times when solar radiation increased by 1 MJ/m after adjusting for other confounding climate factors (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Solar radiation has a significant linear relationship with suicide after adjusting for region, other climate variables, and time trends.

摘要

目的

以往研究表明自杀率存在显著的季节性变化。由于韩国的季风季节,气温与太阳辐射之间存在季节性不一致。我们调查了韩国自杀行为的季节性,并评估了其与气候变量的关联。

方法

自杀率数据来自韩国国家统计局,气候数据来自韩国气象厅1992 - 2010年期间的数据。我们使用广义相加模型(GAM)进行分析。首先,我们探究了自杀行为以及平均气温、日气温范围、太阳辐射和相对湿度等气候变量的季节性。其次,我们确定了与自杀率相关的混杂气候变量。为了估计太阳辐射对自杀率的调整效应,我们使用多变量GAM研究混杂变量。

结果

自杀率呈现出与太阳辐射相似模式的季节性。我们发现,在调整其他混杂气候因素后,太阳辐射每增加1兆焦耳/平方米,自杀率增加1.008倍(P < 0.001)。

结论

在调整地区、其他气候变量和时间趋势后,太阳辐射与自杀行为存在显著的线性关系。

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