Joshi Yadav Prasad, Kim Eun-Hye, Cheong Hae-Kwan
Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, 16419, Republic of Korea.
BMC Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 7;17(1):406. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2506-6.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and leptospirosis are seasonal rodent-borne infections in the Republic of Korea (Korea). The occurrences of HFRS and leptospirosis are influenced by climatic variability. However, few studies have examined the effects of local climatic variables on the development of these infections. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of HFRS and leptospirosis in Korea.
Daily records on human cases of HFRS and leptospirosis between January 2001 to December 2009 were analyzed. The associations of climatic factors with these cases in high incidence provinces were estimated using the time-series method and multivariate generalized linear Poisson models with a maximal lag of 12 weeks.
From 2001 to 2009, a total of 2912 HFRS and 889 leptospirosis cases were reported, with overall incidences of 0.67 and 0.21 cases per 100,000, respectively, in the study areas. The increase in minimum temperature (1 °C) at a lag of 11 weeks was associated with 17.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.1, 20.6%] and 22.7% (95% CI: 16.5, 29.3%) increases in HFRS and leptospirosis cases, respectively. A 1-h increase in the daily sunshine was related to a 27.5% (95% CI: 18.2, 37.6%) increase in HFRS at a lag of 0 week. A 1% increase in daily minimum relative humidity and a 1 mm increase in daily rainfall were associated with 4.0% (95% CI:1.8, 6.1) and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2, 2.8%) increases in weekly leptospirosis cases at 11 and 6 weeks later, respectively. A 1 mJ/m increase in daily solar radiation was associated with a 13.7% (95% CI: 4.9, 23.2%) increase in leptospirosis cases, maximized at a 2-week lag.
During the peak season in Korea, climatic factors play a significant role in the development of HFRS and leptospirosis. The findings of this study may be applicable to the forecasting and prediction of disease outbreaks.
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）和钩端螺旋体病是大韩民国（韩国）的季节性鼠传感染病。HFRS和钩端螺旋体病的发病受气候变异性影响。然而，很少有研究考察当地气候变量对这些感染病发展的影响。本研究旨在评估气候因素对韩国HFRS和钩端螺旋体病发病的影响。
分析了2001年1月至2009年12月期间HFRS和钩端螺旋体病的人类病例每日记录。采用时间序列法和最大滞后12周的多元广义线性泊松模型，估计高发省份气候因素与这些病例之间的关联。
2001年至2009年，研究区域共报告2912例HFRS病例和889例钩端螺旋体病病例，总发病率分别为每10万人0.67例和0.21例。滞后11周时最低温度升高1℃与HFRS病例和钩端螺旋体病病例分别增加17.8%[95%置信区间（CI）：15.1，20.6%]和22.7%（95%CI：16.5，29.3%）相关。每日日照增加1小时与滞后0周时HFRS病例增加27.5%（95%CI：18.2，37.6%）相关。每日最低相对湿度增加1%和每日降雨量增加1毫米分别与11周和6周后每周钩端螺旋体病病例增加4.0%（95%CI：1.8，6.1）和2.0%（95%CI：1.2，2.8%）相关。每日太阳辐射增加1mJ/m与钩端螺旋体病病例增加13.7%（95%CI：4.9，23.2%）相关，在滞后2周时达到最大值。
在韩国的发病高峰期，气候因素在HFRS和钩端螺旋体病的发展中起重要作用。本研究结果可能适用于疾病暴发的预测和预报。
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