Trotter R Talbot, Keena Melody A
USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 51 Mill Pond Rd., Hamden, CT 06514 (
Environ Entomol. 2016 Dec;45(6):1360-1370. doi: 10.1093/ee/nvw108. Epub 2016 Aug 31.
Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology model for A. glabripennis that provides simulated life-tables for populations of individual beetles under variable climatic conditions that takes into account the variable number of instars beetles may undergo as larvae. Phenology parameters in the model are based on a synthesis of published data and studies of A. glabripennis, and the model output was evaluated using a laboratory-reared population maintained under varying temperatures mimicking those typical of Central Park in New York City. The model was stable under variations in population size, simulation length, and the Julian dates used to initiate individual beetles within the population. Comparison of model results with previously published field-based phenology studies in native and invasive populations indicates both this new phenology model, and the previously published heating-degree-day model show good agreement in the prediction of the beginning of the flight season for adults. However, the phenology model described here avoids underpredicting the cumulative emergence of adults through the season, in addition to providing tables of life stages and estimations of voltinism for local populations. This information can play a key role in evaluating risk by predicting the potential for population growth, and may facilitate the optimization of management and eradication efforts.
管理和根除入侵物种的工作可受益于对目标物种生理、生物学和行为的深入了解，而当前根除亚洲长角天牛（Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky）的工作凸显了这些信息可能发挥的作用。在此，我们提出了一种针对亚洲长角天牛的气候驱动物候模型，该模型在考虑幼虫期可能经历的不同龄期数量的可变气候条件下，为个体甲虫种群提供模拟生命表。模型中的物候参数基于已发表数据和对亚洲长角天牛的研究综合得出，并且使用在模拟纽约中央公园典型温度的不同温度下饲养的实验室种群对模型输出进行了评估。该模型在种群大小、模拟时长以及用于启动种群内个体甲虫的儒略日的变化下保持稳定。将模型结果与先前发表的关于本地和入侵种群的基于实地的物候研究进行比较表明，这个新的物候模型以及先前发表的热度日模型在预测成虫飞行季节开始时间方面显示出良好的一致性。然而，这里描述的物候模型除了提供生命阶段表和当地种群化性估计外，还避免了对成虫整个季节累计出现数量的预测不足。这些信息通过预测种群增长潜力在评估风险方面可发挥关键作用，并且可能有助于优化管理和根除工作。
