Habib Thomas J, Heckbert Scott, Wilson Jeffrey J, Vandenbroeck Andrew J K, Cranston Jerome, Farr Daniel R
Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Instutite , Edmonton , Alberta , Canada.
Alberta Innovates Technology Futures , Edmonton , Alberta , Canada.
PeerJ. 2016 Dec 22;4:e2814. doi: 10.7717/peerj.2814. eCollection 2016.
The science of ecosystem service (ES) mapping has become increasingly sophisticated over the past 20 years, and examples of successfully integrating ES into management decisions at national and sub-national scales have begun to emerge. However, increasing model sophistication and accuracy-and therefore complexity-may trade-off with ease of use and applicability to real-world decision-making contexts, so it is vital to incorporate the lessons learned from implementation efforts into new model development. Using successful implementation efforts for guidance, we developed an integrated ES modelling system to quantify several ecosystem services: forest timber production and carbon storage, water purification, pollination, and biodiversity. The system is designed to facilitate uptake of ES information into land-use decisions through three principal considerations: (1) using relatively straightforward models that can be readily deployed and interpreted without specialized expertise; (2) using an agent-based modelling framework to enable the incorporation of human decision-making directly within the model; and (3) integration among all ES models to simultaneously demonstrate the effects of a single land-use decision on multiple ES. We present an implementation of the model for a major watershed in Alberta, Canada, and highlight the system's capabilities to assess a suite of ES under future management decisions, including forestry activities under two alternative timber harvest strategies, and through a scenario modelling analysis exploring different intensities of hypothetical agricultural expansion. By using a modular approach, the modelling system can be readily expanded to evaluate additional ecosystem services or management questions of interest in order to guide land-use decisions to achieve socioeconomic and environmental objectives.
在过去20年里，生态系统服务（ES）制图科学日益复杂，将ES成功纳入国家和次国家层面管理决策的案例已开始出现。然而，模型复杂度和准确性的提高——进而导致复杂性增加——可能会与易用性以及在现实世界决策背景下的适用性相互权衡，因此将实施工作中吸取的经验教训纳入新模型开发至关重要。以成功的实施工作为指导，我们开发了一个综合ES建模系统，以量化多种生态系统服务：森林木材生产与碳储存、水质净化、授粉和生物多样性。该系统旨在通过三个主要考量因素促进将ES信息纳入土地利用决策：（1）使用相对简单的模型，无需专业知识即可轻松部署和解读；（2）使用基于主体的建模框架，以便在模型中直接纳入人类决策；（3）所有ES模型之间的整合，以同时展示单一土地利用决策对多种ES的影响。我们展示了该模型在加拿大艾伯塔省一个主要流域的实施情况，并强调了该系统在未来管理决策下评估一系列ES的能力，包括两种替代木材采伐策略下的林业活动，以及通过情景建模分析探索假设农业扩张的不同强度。通过采用模块化方法，该建模系统可以轻松扩展，以评估其他感兴趣的生态系统服务或管理问题，从而指导土地利用决策以实现社会经济和环境目标。
