Teh Louise S L, Lam Vicky W Y, Cheung William W L, Miller Dana, Teh Lydia C L, Sumaila U Rashid
Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Changing Ocean Research Unit & Nereus project, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
PLoS One. 2016 Dec 29;11(12):e0168529. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168529. eCollection 2016.
We investigate how high seas closure will affect the availability of commonly consumed food fish in 46 fish reliant, and/or low income countries. Domestic consumption of straddling fish species (fish that would be affected by high seas closure) occurred in 54% of the assessed countries. The majority (70%) of countries were projected to experience net catch gains following high seas closure. However, countries with projected catch gains and that also consumed the straddling fish species domestically made up only 37% of the assessed countries. In contrast, much fewer countries (25%) were projected to incur net losses from high seas closure, and of these, straddling species were used domestically in less than half (45%) of the countries. Our findings suggest that, given the current consumption patterns of straddling species, high seas closure may only directly benefit the supply of domestically consumed food fish in a small number of fish reliant and/or low income countries. In particular, it may not have a substantial impact on improving domestic fish supply in countries with the greatest need for improved access to affordable fish, as only one third of this group used straddling fish species domestically. Also, food security in countries with projected net catch gains but where straddling fish species are not consumed domestically may still benefit indirectly via economic activities arising from the increased availability of non-domestically consumed straddling fish species following high seas closure. Consequently, this study suggests that high seas closure can potentially improve marine resource sustainability as well as contribute to human well-being in some of the poorest and most fish dependent countries worldwide. However, caution is required because high seas closure may also negatively affect fish availability in countries that are already impoverished and fish insecure.
我们研究了公海封闭将如何影响46个依赖鱼类和/或低收入国家中常见食用食用鱼的供应情况。在评估的国家中，54%存在跨界鱼类（会受到公海封闭影响的鱼类）的国内消费情况。预计大多数国家（70%）在公海封闭后将实现净捕捞量增加。然而，预计捕捞量增加且国内也消费跨界鱼类的国家仅占评估国家的37%。相比之下，预计因公海封闭而出现净损失的国家要少得多（25%），在这些国家中，不到一半（45%）的国家国内使用跨界鱼类。我们的研究结果表明，鉴于目前跨界鱼类的消费模式，公海封闭可能只会直接惠及少数依赖鱼类和/或低收入国家国内消费食用鱼的供应。特别是，它可能对改善最需要获得负担得起的鱼类的国家的国内鱼类供应没有实质性影响，因为这一群体中只有三分之一在国内使用跨界鱼类。此外，预计捕捞量增加但国内不消费跨界鱼类的国家的粮食安全仍可能通过公海封闭后非国内消费的跨界鱼类供应增加所引发的经济活动而间接受益。因此，这项研究表明，公海封闭有可能提高海洋资源的可持续性，并为全球一些最贫穷和最依赖鱼类的国家的人类福祉做出贡献。然而，需要谨慎，因为公海封闭也可能对已经贫困且鱼类供应不安全的国家的鱼类供应产生负面影响。
