Carroll Rachel, Lawson Andrew B, Faes Christel, Kirby Russell S, Aregay Mehreteab, Watjou Kevin
1 Department of Public Health, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA.
2 Interuniversity Institute for Statistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium.
Stat Methods Med Res. 2018 Jan;27(1):250-268. doi: 10.1177/0962280215627298. Epub 2016 Jul 20.
In disease mapping where predictor effects are to be modeled, it is often the case that sets of predictors are fixed, and the aim is to choose between fixed model sets. Model selection methods, both Bayesian model selection and Bayesian model averaging, are approaches within the Bayesian paradigm for achieving this aim. In the spatial context, model selection could have a spatial component in the sense that some models may be more appropriate for certain areas of a study region than others. In this work, we examine the use of spatially referenced Bayesian model averaging and Bayesian model selection via a large-scale simulation study accompanied by a small-scale case study. Our results suggest that BMS performs well when a strong regression signature is found.
在疾病映射中，若要对预测因子的效应进行建模，通常情况下预测因子集是固定的，目标是在固定的模型集中进行选择。模型选择方法，包括贝叶斯模型选择和贝叶斯模型平均，都是贝叶斯范式中用于实现这一目标的方法。在空间背景下，模型选择可能具有空间成分，即某些模型可能比其他模型更适用于研究区域的某些特定区域。在这项工作中，我们通过一项大规模模拟研究并辅以一项小规模案例研究，考察了空间参考贝叶斯模型平均和贝叶斯模型选择的应用。我们的结果表明，当发现强回归特征时，贝叶斯模型选择表现良好。
