Chala Desalegn, Brochmann Christian, Psomas Achilleas, Ehrich Dorothee, Gizaw Abel, Masao Catherine A, Bakkestuen Vegar, Zimmermann Niklaus E
Natural History Museum University of Oslo Oslo Norway.
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland.
Ecol Evol. 2016 Nov 25;6(24):8931-8941. doi: 10.1002/ece3.2603. eCollection 2016 Dec.
The main aim of this paper is to address consequences of climate warming on loss of habitat and genetic diversity in the enigmatic tropical alpine giant rosette plants using the Ethiopian endemic as a model. We modeled the habitat suitability of . and assessed how its range is affected under two climate models and four emission scenarios. We used three statistical algorithms calibrated to represent two different complexity levels of the response. We analyzed genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphisms and assessed the impact of the projected range loss. Under all model and scenario combinations and consistent across algorithms and complexity levels, this afro-alpine flagship species faces massive range reduction. Only 3.4% of its habitat seems to remain suitable on average by 2,080, resulting in loss of 82% (CI 75%-87%) of its genetic diversity. The remaining suitable habitat is projected to be fragmented among and reduced to four mountain peaks, further deteriorating the probability of long-term sustainability of viable populations. Because of the similar morphological and physiological traits developed through convergent evolution by tropical alpine giant rosette plants in response to diurnal freeze-thaw cycles, they most likely respond to climate change in a similar way as our study species. We conclude that specialized high-alpine giant rosette plants, such as , are likely to face very high risk of extinction following climate warming.
本文的主要目的是利用埃塞俄比亚特有植物作为模型，探讨气候变暖对神秘的热带高山巨型莲座植物栖息地丧失和遗传多样性的影响。我们对[植物名称]的栖息地适宜性进行了建模，并评估了在两种气候模型和四种排放情景下其分布范围是如何受到影响的。我们使用了三种经过校准的统计算法来代表两种不同复杂程度的响应。我们利用扩增片段长度多态性分析了遗传多样性，并评估了预计的分布范围丧失的影响。在所有模型和情景组合下，并且在算法和复杂程度上保持一致，这种非洲高山旗舰物种面临着大规模的分布范围缩小。到2080年，其栖息地平均似乎只有3.4%仍然适宜，导致其遗传多样性丧失82%（置信区间75%-87%）。预计剩余的适宜栖息地将分散在四座山峰之间并减少，这进一步降低了可行种群长期可持续性的可能性。由于热带高山巨型莲座植物通过趋同进化形成了相似的形态和生理特征以应对昼夜冻融循环，它们很可能与我们的研究物种以相似的方式对气候变化做出反应。我们得出结论，像[植物名称]这样的特殊高山巨型莲座植物在气候变暖后可能面临极高的灭绝风险。
