Lee Jung Jeung, Park Nam Hee, Lee Kun Sei, Chee Hyun Keun, Sim Sung Bo, Kim Myo Jeong, Choi Ji Suk, Kim Myunghwa, Park Choon Seon
Department of Preventive Medicine, Keimyung University School of Medicine.
Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Keimyung University School of Medicine.
Korean J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2016 Dec;49(Suppl 1):S37-S43. doi: 10.5090/kjtcs.2016.49.S1.S37. Epub 2016 Dec 5.
While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea.
After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected.
The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario.
Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors affecting the supply of cardiovascular surgeons, an active intervention of policies can be prescribed for the areas that have failed to meet the appropriate market distributions.
随着心血管疾病随着人口老龄化而迅速增加，预计心血管外科手术的需求将逐渐上升，但在过去十年中，胸心血管外科医生的供应却持续减少。因此，本研究旨在通过分析韩国医疗服务领域心血管外科手术的供需情况，为制定医疗保健政策提供指导。
本研究利用健康保险审查和评估服务机构的国民健康保险理赔数据，调查了实际进行的心血管外科手术数量，并参考了有关65岁及以上老年人口的国家统计数据，采用基于单元格的模型估算未来心血管外科手术的数量。为了分析外科医生的供需情况，研究了近期专门从事胸心血管外科手术的新外科医生的现状及其在心血管外科手术中的亚专业比例。然后，考虑三种不同的情况，预测了未来5年心血管外科医生的工作人数。
2014年记录的心血管外科手术数量为10581例，预计将持续增加，到2040年需求将达到15501例，增长46.5%。2014年共有245名心血管外科医生在职。展望未来的5年跨度，预计2040年供应的外科医生数量为184名，退休的为249名，在职的为309名，与2014年相比分别增长-24.9%、1.6%和26.1%。这预示着在每种情况下供需都会失衡。
心血管外科医生是高度专业化心血管外科医疗服务的核心资源，培养外科医生需要大量的时间、精力和资源；因此，通过分析影响心血管外科医生供应的各种因素，可以针对未能实现适当市场分布的领域制定积极的政策干预措施。
