Chen Can, Li Tienan, Sun Jian, Chen Feng
Department of Traffic Engineering and Key Laboratory of Road & Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao'an Road, Shanghai 201804, China.
Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, SiPaiLou #2, Nanjing 210096, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Dec 27;14(1):20. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14010020.
Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society.
热点识别（HSID）是高速公路安全管理过程的首要关键步骤。本研究提出了一种使用定量风险评估（QRA）技术的新型热点识别方法。特定地点可能发生的碰撞事故被视为风险。基于经验贝叶斯方法估计所有暴露车辆碰撞发生概率的总和。至于碰撞事故的后果，碰撞不仅可能造成直接损失（如人员伤亡和财产损失），还可能导致间接损失。间接损失通过使用确定性排队图方法计算的额外延误来表示。直接损失和间接损失统一货币化，以被视为这种风险的后果。碰撞事故的潜在成本，作为对高风险地点进行排名的一个标准，可以明确表示为所有过往车辆碰撞概率与相应碰撞后果的总和。给出了一个关于上海城市高速公路的案例研究。结果表明，用于热点识别的新型QRA方法能够识别出一组真正揭示对社会潜在碰撞成本的高风险地点。
