Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0218; email:
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540; email:
Ann Rev Mar Sci. 2017 Jan 3;9:469-493. doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-122414-033819.
Anchovy and sardine populated productive ocean regions over hundreds of thousands of years under a naturally varying climate, and are now subject to climate change of equal or greater magnitude occurring over decades to centuries. We hypothesize that anchovy and sardine populations are limited in size by the supply of nitrogen from outside their habitats originating from upwelling, mixing, and rivers. Projections of the responses of anchovy and sardine to climate change rely on a range of model types and consideration of the effects of climate on lower trophic levels, the effects of fishing on higher trophic levels, and the traits of these two types of fish. Distribution, phenology, nutrient supply, plankton composition and production, habitat compression, fishing, and acclimation and adaptation may be affected by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology. Observations of populations and evaluation of model skill are essential to resolve the effects of climate change on these fish.
凤尾鱼和沙丁鱼在自然气候变化下已经在数以十万年计的时间里占据了富饶的海洋区域，而现在它们又面临着气候变化的挑战，其规模和影响程度与过去几十年到几个世纪相当。我们假设凤尾鱼和沙丁鱼的种群规模受到其栖息地以外的氮供应的限制，这些氮供应来自上升流、混合和河流。对凤尾鱼和沙丁鱼对气候变化的反应的预测依赖于一系列模型类型，并考虑了气候对低营养级的影响、捕捞对高营养级的影响以及这两种鱼类的特征。分布、物候、养分供应、浮游生物组成和生产力、生境压缩、捕捞以及适应和调整都可能受到海洋变暖、酸化、缺氧和水文变化的影响。对种群的观测和对模型技能的评估对于解决气候变化对这些鱼类的影响至关重要。
