Karimi Asrin, Delpisheh Ali, Sayehmiri Kourosh
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, IR Iran.
Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, IR Iran.
J Cancer Res Ther. 2016 Jul-Sep;12(3):1184-1188. doi: 10.4103/0973-1482.168966.
Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second common cause of cancer-induced mortalities in Iranian women. There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in breast cancer patients using accelerated failure time models (AFT).
This was a retrospective-analytic cohort study.
About 313 women with a pathologically proven diagnosis of breast cancer who had been treated during a 7-year period (since January 2006 until March 2014) in Sanandaj City, Kurdistan Province of Iran were recruited.
Performance among AFT was assessed using the goodness of fit methods. Discrimination among the exponential, Weibull, generalized gamma, log-logistic, and log-normal distributions was done using Akaik information criteria and maximum likelihood.
The 5 years OS was 75% (95% CI = 74.57-75.43). The main results in terms of survival were found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate, tumor metastasis, and relapse of cancer. Survival time in breast cancer patients without tumor metastasis and relapse were 4, 2-fold longer than other patients with metastasis and relapse, respectively.
One of the most important undermining prognostic factors in breast cancer is metastasis; hence, knowledge of the mechanisms of metastasis is necessary to prevent it so occurrence and treatment of metastatic breast cancer and ultimately extend the lifetime of patients.
乳腺癌是伊朗女性中最常见的癌症，也是癌症致死的第二大常见原因。在过去十年中，风险模型和生存分析有了快速发展。
本研究的目的是使用加速失效时间模型（AFT）评估乳腺癌患者总生存期（OS）的预后因素。
这是一项回顾性分析队列研究。
招募了约313名经病理证实患有乳腺癌的女性，她们于2006年1月至2014年3月的7年期间在伊朗库尔德斯坦省萨南达杰市接受了治疗。
使用拟合优度方法评估AFT模型的性能。使用赤池信息准则和最大似然法对指数分布、威布尔分布、广义伽马分布、对数逻辑斯蒂分布和对数正态分布进行区分。
5年总生存率为75%（95%CI = 74.57 - 75.43）。在生存方面，主要结果是针对临床分期协变量、肿瘤转移和癌症复发的不同类别得出的。无肿瘤转移和复发的乳腺癌患者的生存时间分别比有转移和复发的其他患者长4倍和2倍。
乳腺癌最重要的不良预后因素之一是转移；因此，了解转移机制对于预防转移、转移性乳腺癌的发生和治疗以及最终延长患者寿命是必要的。
