Elvik Rune
Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2017 Feb;99(Pt A):364-371. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.12.018. Epub 2017 Jan 5.
This paper presents a meta-analysis of the road safety effects of converting junctions to roundabouts. 44 studies containing a total of 154 estimates of effect were included. Based on a meta-regression analysis, converting junctions to roundabouts is associated with a reduction of fatal accidents of about 65% and a reduction of injury accidents of about 40%. The mean effect on property-damage-only accidents is ambiguous. Summary estimates of effect are robust for fatal and injury accidents, but vary depending on the model of meta-analysis and the treatment of outlying data points for property-damage-only accidents. A trim-and-fill analysis suggests a weak tendency for publication bias, with modest influence on summary estimates of effect. It is concluded that roundabouts are very effective in reducing traffic fatalities.
本文对将路口改造成环形交叉路口的道路安全效果进行了荟萃分析。纳入了44项研究,共包含154个效果估计值。基于荟萃回归分析,将路口改造成环形交叉路口可使致命事故减少约65%,伤害事故减少约40%。对仅造成财产损失事故的平均效果不明确。对致命和伤害事故的效果汇总估计是稳健的,但因荟萃分析模型以及对仅造成财产损失事故的异常数据点的处理方式而异。修剪填充分析表明存在较弱的发表偏倚倾向,对效果汇总估计有适度影响。研究得出结论,环形交叉路口在减少交通死亡人数方面非常有效。